Yield - It's The Yield Stupid

Noun

The amount of something that is produced, such as the profit made from an investment. For example, "The yield of the recipe was twelve brownies"

Where it comes to T-Notes and Bonds, it is all about the yield on the bond which is dictated by the price you are willing to buy the debt for in the first place.  Pay a lot for that I.O.U. and the yield is small.  Pay a little less for the same I.O.U. and the yield is larger.  

Uncle Sam is finding "true price discovery" of the value of his debt.

That little toad over at Treasury is finding out what the free market really thinks a T-Note or Bond is truly worth.  

She can't count on the Federal Reserve to ride to the rescue and buy up the debt at Mount Everest Nosebleed prices and subsequently drive down the yield by artificial means.  At the moment, she is dependent upon the free market to make up its mind about what her pieces of paper are truly worth.

Sure, anything could happen.  The Federal Reserve could say "fuck it" and turn the spigots back on and buy up Treasury paper at nearly full face value.  That would mean telling 70% of the country to suck it up and prepare to take a wheelbarrow brimming with dollars to Wal-Mart every week to buy Great Value Mac-N-Cheese, off brand soup, Red White & Blue six packs, etc.

The Fed and our wonderful leadership of the past four years managed to put its collective tit in a wringer and now it has few palatable options where it comes to removing said tit from said wringer.  All because they just could not stand another four years of the Deplorable Orange Man as President.  So fucking stupid.

James Carville is your grandfather's Democrat - someone who doesn't have his head up his ass and a person you could have a real conversation with - sad to see it is now the party completely overwhelmed with hustlers and short sighted idiots.

When "Savings" Are Artificial

"Great Americans" were flush with savings for a brief and shining moment thanks to Uncle Sam and The Federal Reserve.  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.  Everyone was King (or Queen) of Turd Mountain.

They leveraged those "stimmy checks", PPP loans and mortgage payments / student loan payments that were not required to be paid due to "Covid moratoriums" up to the moon.  They told their landlords to "go pound sand" and used their would be housing funds to make a down payment on a Hellcat thanks to a clueless and feckless government dictate that clearly contradicted contract law.  

Our government is a spendthrift harpy and her spouse (The Federal Reserve) is an effeminate cuck who knows no boundaries and has no balls.

Well, your Old Uncle Kenny is here to piss on your parade.  The juice is gone - embrace the suck and cough up the interest payments.

So Perplexing

 

Cares Act, PPP loans, "Stimmies", American Inflation Reduction Act, etc. all would have been bad enough for creating inflation.  When you artificially inflate the supply of money available in an economy, the price of goods goes up and stays up.  Sometimes for a very long time.

It would be bad enough if this was an honest country.  Our reality is that our society is flush with grifters, cheats, illegals, frauds, "influencers", bullshit artists, etc.  Our society is so full of ass clowns that all of those "Covid 19 bullshit feel good programs" became leveraged.  How many of the idiot class took their forgiven PPP loan proceeds or "Stimmy Checks" and used it as a down payment for a loan to buy a second house or an expensive boat, car or R.V.?  A loan that they are now having difficulty in repaying.

We are truly a stupid and corrupt country.  We do not deserve to have the reserve currency of the world.  The bond market is calling bullshit (as it should).

We should be asking ourselves how we can go about restoring the faith in our currency and not just "throwing temper tantrums" and making threats when countries dare to seek out an alternative (a.k.a. B.R.I.C.S.).

"Bloomberg) -- The US debt interest-cost burden climbed to the highest since the 1990s in the financial year that’s just ended, escalating the risk that fiscal worries limit the policy options for the next administration in Washington."

When Is a Housing Market Like P. Diddy?

 

"Fraud is generally a key component of a bubble. As mania kicks in, people's concerns over fraud lessen as the perceived risk diminishes. Over time, bad actors crowd out those foolish enough to follow the rules and the market becomes dominated by fraud. This was the case with the 2000s subprime bubble and the 1980s savings and loan bubble. It's the case now, too."

P. Diddy, Puff Daddy, Sean Combs, Puff Adder etc. wasn't quite what he purported to be and Katt's prediction is proving to be spot on - Diddy was surrounded with various enablers and "playa's" and our presently busting housing bubble is also full of "bad actors". Can't wait to see who is involved in both clusterfucks.

If you are a "bubble denier", you are either in a market that hasn't as yet been affected or you are a low IQ real estate "professional" or both.

Post Debate Headlines

 

So, first let's make this statement:  I did NOT watch the Trump Harris Debate.  Not interested - watched House of the Dragon episodes with the family instead.  Our minds are made up - we are not voting for a FOURTH Obama term because voting for Kamala Harris is just that - a vote for a fourth term for the Magical Kenyan of Chicago and his crew.  He was a joke back then and he's a joke now - an articulate and clean (Joe Biden's description of then candidate Obama) joke who can give an eloquent speech but nothing more.

I was mostly interested in reading headlines the day after.  Most media outlets imply or simply state that Trump is washed up - lost the debate by a wide margin, no sense going out and voting for the loser, might as well just stay at home or capitulate and go along with the enormous number of Pro-Kamala voters who are destined to win the upcoming election...nothing to see there, just Vote Harris and the "D" ticket and allow the "Joy" to kick into high gear.

This nation's media is an absolute joke.  Exactly how much more bullshit can they heap on the public?  I know that Americans are pretty dumb but you would have to be Joe Biden brain dead to not know that your circumstances today are MUCH worse than they were in 2019.

Inflation That The Fed Once Claimed to be "Transitory" Is Now "Tamed" - My Response "Pffffffttt"

 

But, to be fair to the Federal Reserve, Congress is part of the problem.  It tasks the Fed with an impossible "dual mandate" of currency stability AND maintaining low unemployment.  So, Congress is part of the problem and since Congress is a representative body of the voting public, a large portion of the public is part of the problem.

I've written this several times over the course of several years - after observing the actions and habits of "Great Americans", the U.S.A. does not deserve the privilege of having the world's reserve currency and our rivals (China, Russia, Brazil, etc.) throughout the world agree.  The dollar will not disappear but its privilege of being recognized as the world's reserve currency is on life support (and deservedly so).

2 Year vs 10 Year Inversion - July 6, 2022 to August 28, 2024

That inversion that I've been prattling on and on and on about for what I'm sure feels like an eternity has finally ended.  

R.I.P. Covid-19 Treasury Yield Inversion.

...but don't get too comfortable just yet.  Those inversions have a bad habit of climbing out of their graves.