Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

 

I am of the opinion that the consumer is living on borrowed time

On a retail level, inventory snags have been worked out and deliveries arrive more or less on time.  Large ticket items gather dust as they await a buyer.  Manufacturers are offering discounts - something that disappeared during all of the Covid 19 nonsense and the reckless distribution of funds from the pinheads at the Federal level.  Small ticket items and necessities continue to be purchased.  

Retail employers are becoming more and more choosy about who they assign hours and managers have been placed upon an "hours diet" by the home office for their store employees.

The job reports are somewhat misleading.  True, there are A LOT OF JOBS out there but not all jobs are created equal.  If you lose a cushy tech job paying big bucks and the only job you can obtain in your area is a hospitality or retail position in its place, your lifestyle will need to adjust.  Some states are experiencing an uptick in first time unemployment claims.  Not all of the recently unemployed are going to rush out and accept the first offer thrown at them - more often than not they are going to take a little siesta from working in the hopes that they will be able to replace their old salary with a new salary that is equal to or greater than what they lost.  It may become a game of musical chairs.

Some economists are arguing that "Great Americans" have a long way to go before becoming "maxed out" on consumer credit.  Their collective credit limit far exceeds their collective current balance.  A simpleton's point of view if you ask me - many truly credit worthy people will NEVER charge as much as their Visa or Mastercard allows because IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT.  

As the Fed continues to tighten (no more Quantitative Easing) and as the student loan repayment moratorium finally ends, we will see just how much gas the American Consumer has left in the tank.

Personally, I see the consumer of large ticket items every time I go to work and I pay attention to their patterns and their moods.  Not all but many of them are sweating every dime they have to shell out.

See the Statistica chart and article here

"And lastly, as opposed to their government, Americans are far from reaching their debt ceiling, at least as far as credit cards are concerned. With a total credit card balance of $986 billion and a total limit of $4.5 trillion, U.S. consumer actually have $3.5 trillion in untapped available credit on their cards."

It's Powell and Company's Time of the Month

 

Don't look now but it is once again time for the FOMC to hold heap 'um big Pow Wow to discuss whether or not they should adjust their overnight interest rate or not.

Recently, the stock market rejoiced over the fact that a pound of bananas and a can of chicken noodle soup (generic or store brand) was no longer racing toward a new record high price.  This caused the stock market smoothies to believe (or at least publicly promote the idea) that the Fed will pause in their interest rate hikes and maybe, just maybe, start cutting rates again.  This speculation coupled with FOMO (fear of missing out) has caught the attention of your average Lower Slobovian retail investor.  Personally, I believe that the smoothies are playing the retail slobs.  Never forget the leaked e-mail in which Goldman Sachs referred to their customers as "Muppets".  Front running the trades of your clients is not beyond them.

Never mind the still nosebleed level asking prices of real estate, a used car, a new lawn mower, etc.  It's all good.

If you question the wisdom of this post, meander on over to your local "Big Tits and Hair Real Estate Agency" website and check out the asking prices on listings from areas that you are familiar with - ask yourself as you peruse the postings if the asking prices seem realistic.  Next, take a look at what is available at "Honest Kyle's Used Auto Emporium" and see if the gel haired ass clown has anything available that the average working person could afford without the use of a dodgy loan contract.

But no worries Fed - that pound of bananas is at 55 cents per pound and that's some progress, right??

Boggles the Mind

 

"Younger voters should be a source of electoral strength for Democrats for some years to come."

From Brookings

The "leadership" that is elected in the United States reflects the "evolution" of politics and demographics in the country.  Democrats have successfully created a coalition of the overly emotional, the illiterate, the liberal, the weird and the common thief.  There is a large wave of people that happens to include nearly an entire generation that falls into the "Free Shit Army".  

It has to be stupidest voting block ever assembled.  

The precious people of color who spit out kid after kid after kid after kid who believe "it takes a village" to raise their bastard offspring.  

The ridiculous but college educated suburban white woman who is oh so offended by the "grab 'em by the pussy if you have enough cash Donald Trump hijinks" (a statement that is offensive to the ears but entirely true - some of the gross shit that women do for money is evidence of the truth behind Trump's tape recorded statement).  This is also the "voter" who would very much love to see her enormous pile of student debt vaporized by executive order.  If you could make all that "just go away" reader, she will very likely allow you the privilege of grabbing her by the pussy.

The weirdo ass clown who insists that you celebrate his or her sexual pet peeve or peccadillo during the entire "pride" month of June.  Sorry, but dressing as a man when you are clearly a woman, one man taking another man's dick up the shit chute, stuffing live hamsters up your ass, etc. is not a cause for pride.  Go back to the shadows where you belong.

This is how clowns from the Democrat party get elected and then keep getting re-elected no matter how bat shit crazy their politics happen to be when viewed by realistic and sane people.  These are their people.

The predictable knee jerk and opposite response of those who voted for Donald Trump within the Republican party is really just a natural reflex of those people who see what was once the United States of their youth slipping away.  That generation is on the decline and the generation that voted Obama into office (twice) is on the increase.

I was recently informed that a long estranged son had recently passed away at the age of 37.  From what I gathered, he was very much an Obama fan, liberal in his leanings to a fault, Democrat in his voting pattern, and very much opposed to the "evil conservative patriarchy".  So, what happened?  From what I've been told he died of a heart attack in China of all places where he had married a Chinese woman.  From what I remember of him, he was on all accounts healthy.  

I was stricken by the irony of it all.  Here we have a young white boy from the US of A who was opposed to anyone who even vaguely resembled Donald Trump in his politics and who very likely got the "clot shot" Covid-19 vaccinations and the necessary "boosters" to enter the wonderful Communist country of China.  And China is where he subsequently died of heart failure - something that seems to be an increasingly common affliction among young men who either voluntarily or by result of coercion take the Wu-Flu "vaccination".

The other irony is that his mother (and my ex-wife) taught CPR classes for many, many years.  There is no telling how many "pump and blow" sessions this woman held over the course of three decades.  Thousands probably.  I don't know how many other people have been saved as a result of her teachings but at the end of the day, it did not save her own son.  

Your old Uncle Kenny remains unapologetically un-vaccinated.  The Covid 19 "vaccinations" and "boosters" that were promoted by both Democrats and Republicans alike (remember Donald Trump's "Operation Warp Speed" project) was a total load of bullshit and a lot of gullible people went along for the ride.  My bullshit detector was flashing red and I correctly followed my instincts instead of following Dr. Faucci's science.

World War Z

 

WSJ June 5, 2023. The real fun will commence in 2024.

No Place to Hide

 

Every where you bother to look in banking news you will find a common theme.  Loan delinquencies are creeping higher.  Foreclosure activity is increasing.  Eviction numbers are up.  Homeless people are no longer found as individuals but in small to large "encampments".  

The number of "Great Americans" who live by the mantra "fake it until you make it" are seeing the results of going into debt up to their eyeballs and then having interest rates slowly but surely increase over the past year.

Higher interest rates combined with higher property taxes and higher homeowner insurance premiums are slow roasting them in a debtor's hell.  Add onto that a little extra heat from overdue home owner's association dues and you have a perfect debtor bar-b-que recipe.

The student loan / Covid 19 forbearance fiasco comes to an end in September unless there is some sort of intervention performed by the Supreme Court.  My opinion is that "Joe Biden and Company" are not the law of the land and should not be allowed to dictate an end to contract law.  People borrowed the money - cough it up and repay it.

The World and The Ratings Agencies Now Question the Reserve Status of the Clown World Fun Bucks

It was described as "the exorbitant privilege" by the French when describing the Dollar being recognized as the world's reserve currency.

The fat lady is now singing.

The path toward the Dollar's dethroning started when Obama was in office.  One ratings agency, S&P, dared to downgrade US debt in 2011.  Obama was not pleased and S&P retracted its criticisms.

Was S&P wrong then?  I don't think so.  I think they were early.  And, importantly, S&P's voice was alone.  S&P's concerns were valid in 2011 but they folded under intense political pressure.

The king had no clothing back then and it still parades around naked but it has been able to browbeat people into silence.  Until now.

If you take off the rose colored glasses and take a hard look at what this country, its leadership and the electorate in total looks like (think "Great American Voters"), do you see a nation that should have its currency serve as the world's reserve currency?  Don't get me wrong.  I see a lot of very good people who work hard, have their shit together, keep up their lawns and mind their own business.  Unfortunately, I also see a whole lot of complete idiots, ass-hats, bullshit artists, deadbeats, etc. that are "a waste of skin" to use one of my neighbor's phrases.

The Wheels Are Starting to Come Off

When an economy is 70% consumer spending and a large part of that consumer "spending" is driven by the use of credit, you get a very fragile situation.

Rising rates will slow some spending.  Higher standards and tighter underwriting when generating new loans will slow a lot of spending.  That is where we are today.  Nothing sobers the mind of greedy bankers more than losses and failure.  Poorly supervised banks are feeling the sting.

It's hard to "spend" what you don't have and for many "Great Americans", they can "spend" only that which they are able to borrow.

I'm enjoying the compounding interest.  Tomorrow, I will renew a certificate into a new certificate that has a higher rate than what I received last year.  It's a good time to have some money that can "climb the ladder" of increasing interest rates.