U.S.A. Shit Show

The liberal minded, great American voter does not get the "leadership" he or she voted for but does get the "leadership" he or she so richly deserves.

The Tide of Easy Credit is Going Out

Filings are up.  Delinquencies are up.  Gee, what a surprise.  Credit is tighter (translation: those "hope and change loans" are going away for now.  The stupid credit is not available at this time.)

Do you know what economic deflationary force exists that doesn't get much press or thought?  When the loan officer, bank president, credit committee, etc. says "No - your credit request is denied".

Trust me.  A LOT of the loans that are granted and closed during "high tide" are totally stupid.  They are made by stupid people to stupid people.  When "low tide" eventually comes to the beach, credit will still be available but many of the standards are much, much higher as well as the interest rates charged.

Ronald Reagan once said that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job and a depression is when you lose your job.  It could also be said that a recession is when your neighbor files for bankruptcy and depression is when you file for bankruptcy.

Consumer Led Recessions

Yahoo Finance:  "The consumer slowdown is here and its flashing a recession warning for the economy.  Consumers are finally slowing their spending and experts say that's a warning sign of the economy.  Americans have propped up the economy with a powerful spending spree in the last two years."

Let me translate that last sentence into Kenny Bing lingo:  Americans have propped up the economy with a powerful surge of deficit spending thanks to an easy credit environment that is now coming to an end.  Tighter terms, higher interest rates and increasing defaults on consumer loans, credit cards, auto loans and other consumer finance contracts will lead the economy into a consumer led recession.

Fed Statement

 

Thank you to Zero Hedge.  Laughed out loud.

Not Wrong - Just Too Early

This interest rate inversion is very, very long in the tooth.  Make no mistake about it, 10 year treasury yields will become higher than the 2 year treasury yield at some future date.  It is not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when".  The gap between the two has become more and more narrow with short term rates going higher and higher.  When the "ship rights itself", it is going to become even more interesting than it is today.

Moving Day

 Missouri to Texas

Emptying out the storage locker.  I think this will be my last trip to Missouri and the Saint Louis region.  Time for something new.

Long Term Treasury Yields Rise

 

When an inversion eventually rights itself, the party is on (or over, depending upon who you are).