It's Most Difficult at Evening - I So Miss You

When I look at his things, his empty kennel or hear a song like "Kite" from U2, the memory of that last day comes over me like a flood. It's been a little more than four weeks ago but sometimes, it feels like it just happened. I know that time will help. The ache from missing him reminds me that I'm still human. Something is about to give I can feel it coming I think I know what it means I'm not afraid to die I'm not afraid to live And when I'm flat on my back I hope to feel like I did And hardness, it sets in You need some protection The thinner the skin I want you to know That you don't need me anymore I want you to know You don't need anyone or anything at all Who's to say where the wind will take you? Who's to say what it is will break you? I don't know which way the wind will blow Who's to know when the time's come around? Don't want to see you cry I know that this is not goodbye In summer, I can taste the salt in the sea There's a kite blowing out of control on a breeze I wonder what's gonna happen to you You wonder what has happened to me I'm a man, I'm not a child A man who sees The shadow behind your eyes Who's to say where the wind will take you? Who's to say what it is will break you? I don't know where the wind will blow Who's to know when the time's come around Don't want to see you cry I know that this is not goodbye Did I waste it? Not so much I couldn't taste it Life should be fragrant Rooftop to the basement The last of the rockstars When hip-hop drove the big cars In the time when new media Was the big idea That was the big idea

CPI - Shit Meets Fan

The Democrats and the Fed have simultaneously painted themselves into a corner and they know it. Their desperate strategy is to change the narrative (again). Instead of taking their lumps like a fucking man, they’ve decided to blame everything under the sun for their fuck ups. Years ago, Hoenig was warning the Fed (and Congress) that their easy money policies were going to come back and bite them in the ass and now the chickens are home to roost. The Democrats overplayed their hand when it came to Covid and they just could not bring themselves to relinquish the power that all of the Panic Porn brought them. All but the brain-dead (and some members of teachers’ unions which is sort of synonymous with the brain-dead) are sick of their bullshit where masking and lockdowns are concerned and they know it – that’s why they are now “pivoting” and trying to tone down all of the hysteria that they themselves brought upon the country. They suck – they are just the most self-aggrandizing, disingenuous, effeminate pieces of shit that you could possibly elect to high office. They know that they are likely to lose the mid-term elections and they are now trying to cover their asses. Even that fat fuck Pritzker in Illinois is now talking about doing away with the masking mandates because he is losing popularity among voters. The Fed is talking about all of the culprits for high inflation – Omicron, the supply chain snags, the lack of chips from Taiwan, blah, blah, blah. No mention of the gigantic elephant in the room – the inconvenient truth that they pulled from the rectum of a willing Jay Powell and subsequently injected TRILLIONS of dollars into the monetary system over the past two years. When you have people at the table like “Crazy Eyes” Kashkari, token homo Negro Bostic, Obama surrogate mother Yellen and the like spewing their bullshit, what else do you expect other than a colossal fuck up and then the lack of any shred of courage to admit to the fuck up? Embrace the suck, America. You brought it upon yourselves. Personally, I can’t wait to see all of the idiots in the country who bought gigantic SUV’s and pick up trucks over the past 3 years and financed them with usurious loans get bent over each and every time that they go to the gas pump. Cry me a river dipshits.

Hoenig vs Bostic - Real Experience & Intellect vs The End Result of Experiments in Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/28/inflation-interest-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177 

Between 2008 and 2014, the Federal Reserve printed more than $3.5 trillion in new bills. To put that in perspective, it’s roughly triple the amount of money that the Fed created in its first 95 years of existence. Three centuries’ worth of growth in the money supply was crammed into a few short years. The money poured through the veins of the financial system and stoked demand for assets like stocks, corporate debt and commercial real estate bonds, driving up prices across markets. Hoenig was the one Fed leader who voted consistently against this course of action, starting in 2010. In doing so, he pitted himself against the Fed’s powerful chair at the time, Ben Bernanke, who was widely regarded as a hero for the ambitious rescue plans he designed and oversaw. Hoenig lost his fight. Throughout 2010, the FOMC votes were routinely 11 against one, with Hoenig being the one. He retired from the Fed in late 2011, and after that, a reputation hardened around Hoenig as the man who got it wrong. He is remembered as something like a cranky Old Testament prophet who warned incessantly, and incorrectly, about one thing: the threat of coming inflation. But this version of history isn’t true. While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely what drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system. On all of these points, Hoenig was correct. And on all of these points, he was ignored. We are now living in a world that Hoenig warned about. 

My comment for point of reference - Hoenig was the son of a plumber.

The Fed is now in a vise. Inflation is rising faster than the Fed believed it would even a few months ago, with higher prices for gas, goods and automobiles being fueled by the Fed’s unprecedented money printing programs. This comes after years of the Fed steadily pumping up the price of assets like stocks and bonds through its zero-percent interest rates and quantitative easing during and after Hoenig’s time on the FOMC. To respond to rising inflation, the Fed has signaled that it will start hiking interest rates next year. But if that happens, there is every reason to expect that it will cause stock and bond markets to fall, perhaps precipitously, or even cause a recession. “There is no painless solution,” Hoenig said in a recent interview. “It’s going to be difficult. And the longer you wait the more painful it will end up being.” As a bank examiner, Hoenig spent the 1970s watching as the Fed’s policies helped pile on the inflationary tinder that would later ignite. These policies are known as “easy money” policies, meaning that the Fed was keeping interest rates so low that borrowing was cheap and easy. The Fed had kept interest rates so low during the 1960s that they were effectively negative when accounting for inflation by the late 1970s. When rates are effectively negative, that might be called a super-easy money policy. This kind of environment fuels inflation because all that easy money is looking for a place to go. Economists call this phenomenon “too many dollars chasing too few goods,” meaning that everybody is spending the easy money, which drives up the prices of the things they are buying because demand is high. Importantly, the Fed creates these conditions by creating more and more dollars, or increasing the monetary supply, as the economists say. As a bank examiner, Hoenig realized another very important thing. Easy money policies don’t just drive up the price of consumer goods, like bread and cars. The money also drives up price of assets like stocks, bonds and real estate. During the 1970s, low interest rates fueled demand for assets, which eventually inflated asset bubbles across the Midwest, including in heavy farming states, such as Kansas and Nebraska, and in the energy-producing state of Oklahoma. When asset prices like this rise quickly, it creates that dreaded thing called an asset bubble.

Bernanke was a fucking idiot and those who followed him were fucking idiots.

Meanwhile, Back In Iraq

"This agreement and its implications for global security and economy were widely discussed back then. But as 2021 neared its end it became clear that Iran’s neighbor and ex-nemesis Iraq was the real star of the Chinese Belt and Road strategy in the Middle East. According to a report from Fudan University’s Center for Green Finance and Development in Shanghai, last year Iraq received $10.5 billion in investment under the Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Iraq has become the third-biggest Belt and Road partner in energy engagement, after Russia and Pakistan. Overall Chinese investment in Arab and Middle Eastern countries rose by about 360% in 2021, while construction engagement increased by 116%, compared to 2020, the study said." So, the US foolishly squanders blood and treasure in a country for nearly two decades so the Chinese can waltz into the arena and cut deals for future oil supplies. Iraq will be the real beneficiary in this part of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. I don't find fault with Iraq doing what is in its best interest. They have a shit load of oil, the Chinese have a shit load of money and the Americans have proven to be an unreliable partner with an "empire" in decline. Face it, the leadership that this country elects is a fucking joke and has been for quite a while. Why? Because a lot of “great fucking Americans” insist upon exercising their God given right to vote. These are people who are complete fucking morons but God damned it if they don’t insist upon "having their voices heard". Just because you can do something doesn't necessarily mean that you should. We left Afghanistan with our tail between our legs (again, after squandering lives and money for two decades). Now the Afghans will go back to doing what they did before our invasion, including growing poppies for the raw ingredient in heroin that will be exported back to the US to feed the very large and growing number of junkies in this country. But wait, there’s more! Now, we are going to send in our increasingly WOKE military to fight the Russians who have been defending a country and region against invaders for a thousand years. Good luck. Personally, I think that any right thinking young man or woman is a fool to sign up for Uncle Sam’s misguided adventures abroad. The leadership in this country is a fucking joke and you’d have to be a complete moron to volunteer to do the bidding of these corrupt, imbecilic empty suits.

So Many Good Times Over Several Years - Goofy Puppy at Home, All Business When Hunting

Why This Motherfucker is My Hero - in The Fed's Own Words from 2005

President's Message: Volcker's Handling of the Great Inflation Taught Us Much January 01, 2005 By William Poole Unbeknownst to many, last fall was the silver anniversary of a watershed moment in Fed history and the economic history of the country. On Oct. 6, 1979, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker took dramatic steps to rein in the runaway inflation that had been sapping the strength of our economy since the mid-1960s. Without his bold change in monetary policy and his determination to stick with it through several painful years, the U.S. economy would have continued its downward spiral. By reversing the misguided policies of his predecessors, Volcker set the table for the long economic expansions of the 1980s and 1990s. How bad was the period of the Great Inflation? The inflation rate, a mere 1 percent in 1965, hit 14 percent by 1980. Unemployment trended up from a low of 3.5 percent (annual average) in 1969 to 9.7 percent in 1982. The stock market was in the dumps. Oil prices jumped off the charts. Presidents Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter became desperate enough to tinker with price controls, the results being disastrous. Volcker, in office only two months, took the radical step of switching Fed policy from targeting interest rates to targeting the money supply. The days of "easy credit" turned into the days of "very expensive credit." The prime lending rate exceeded 21 percent. Unemployment reached double digits in some months. The dollar depreciated significantly in world foreign exchange markets. Volcker's tough medicine led to not one, but two, recessions before prices finally stabilized. We've learned a lot from that period. For starters, ideas matter. Bad economic advice, much of it from economists, contributed greatly to policy mistakes in the pre-Volcker days. Keynesian economics had been in vogue by then for decades. This school argued that the government could tax and spend its way to full employment. Inflation was acceptable if it put more people to work. Thankfully, such thinking has been discredited today, although our economic models still need improvement. The Fed also learned that to be effective, it must have the confidence of the markets and the public. During the 1960s and early 1970s, various Fed chairmen made rumblings about fighting inflation, but they always backed down when the complaints about the resulting higher cost of credit grew loud. Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin, for example, was no match for President Lyndon Johnson, who depended on cheap credit to finance the Vietnam War and his Great Society. Because the markets observed the Fed's lack of fortitude, they had no expectations that the Fed would conquer inflation. It is extremely costly to bring inflation down if inflation expectations don't come down. Not until Volcker showed that the Fed could take the heat did the markets believe that the Fed was serious this time. Another lesson from the Great Inflation is that the Fed can only achieve its goal of maximum sustainable employment if it is successful in achieving its goal of price stability. The idea that we can let down our guard on inflation to increase employment is unwise in the long term because higher inflation eventually destroys rather than creates jobs. We've also learned our lesson to speak up. In the 1960s and 1970s, not everyone in the Fed System believed that an inflation/employment tradeoff would work. But these people didn't forcefully vocalize their worries. Everyone connected to the Fed today must be vigilant in ensuring that all sides of a debate are given a forum. I think we do a good job at airing debates today, but I believe the public should also be privy to this communication. If we are transparent in all that we do, we will have the public's support when tough medicine is needed again. Last, we learned that we need strong leaders. Paul Volcker was vilified for years because of the steps he had to take to break the back of inflation. "Wanted" posters targeted him for "killing" so many small businesses. Yet he remained resolute, doing what he knew was best for the country in the long term. We are also fortunate that President Ronald Reagan supported Volcker and the cause of price stability. Let's hope we always have such strong leaders at the helm.

Best Picture - 1979 - The Deer Hunter

Private payrolls fell by 301,000 for January versus the estimate for a 200,000 gain, according to payrolls processing firm ADP. You saw it here several days ago - open jobs will either be filled or they will evaporate into thin air. 30 Trillion in debt (thanks to BOTH parties). A Federal Reserve that is relaying at every opportunity that they can no longer pull $$ from Jay Powell's ass unless the country is cool with $10 per gallon gas and $4 loaves of plain white bread. Inflation is not going to go away anytime soon. Why? Because there are many State governments, including here in Missouri, that are flush with cash that they received from Uncle Sam in the previous year. Those State governments are going to be spending that cash on things. They may pick up the unemployment slack created by shrinking private payrolls, who knows? It's going to be a bumpy year.