Many Surprises Await As the Liquidity Dries Up

 

"Something similar is happening in nearby Montauk. Owned by renowned antique picture frame dealer and restorer Eli Wilner, the sprawling property has been on and off the market since 2009. Located on tony Old Montauk Highway, near the old Warhol estate, as well as close to the former homes of Dick Cavett and Peter Beard, Wilner’s spread encompasses 37 acres of oceanfront land, with 485 feet of private beach.

Initially, back in 2009, the asking price was $35 million. After it remain unsold for six months, Wilner inexplicably raised the price to $50 million. The price has since gone up and down with the tides, from a high of $55 million to as little as $29 million in 2019. It’s now listed with Hedgerow Exclusive Properties at $39.5 million.

Though he’s wanted to sell the place for more than a dozen years, Wilner’s real problems with the property began in 2018, when New Jersey-based lender Case Real Estate Capital declared the antique frame mogul’s $17.75 million mortgage in default. The company has been trying to foreclose on the estate since then, The Real Deal disclosed, though Wilner has successfully appealed orders for a sale four times. He even filed a Covid hardship declaration, which was denied. As of now, the property will hit the auction block on February 24."  Living the good life on credit.

Biden and Putin's Big Dick Contest

 

The immovable object meets the irresistible force.  This is also known as a Missouri pissing match.  Unfortunately for those caught in the middle, when elephants clash the grass suffers most in the trampling.  Strangely, this fiasco has united super liberal NPR radio from the University of Missouri with super douche 104.9 “The Patriot” (both are garbage radio stations) and both sides are "pulling" for the Big Guy.  NATO doesn’t want to budge on its open membership policy and Russia doesn’t want to budge on its “NNIMBY” (no NATO in my backyard) policy.  We’ve got us an honest to God, good old fashioned big dick contest on our hands.

Poking the Bear

Russian leaders have long been wary of the eastward expansion of NATO, particularly as the alliance opened its doors to former Warsaw Pact states and ex-Soviet republics in the late 1990s (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) and early 2000s (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Their fears grew in the late 2000s as the alliance stated its intent to admit Georgia and Ukraine at an unspecified point in the future. Daily News Brief A summary of global news developments with CFR analysis delivered to your inbox each morning. Most weekdays. Email Address View all newsletters > For the Kremlin, the notion that Ukraine, a pillar of the Soviet Union with strong historic ties to Russia, would join NATO was a red line. “No Russian leader could stand idly by in the face of steps toward NATO membership for Ukraine. That would be a hostile act toward Russia,” Putin warned U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs William J. Burns, who is now director of the CIA, in the weeks leading up to NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit. Although NATO did not announce a formal membership plan for Ukraine and Georgia at the Bucharest Summit, the alliance did affirm “that these countries will become members of NATO,” and it extended formal invitations to accession talks to Albania and Croatia, which became members in 2009. NATO expanded again in 2017, admitting Montenegro, and in 2020, welcoming North Macedonia.

The Phrase and Theme of the Day is "Big Shot"

Well, you went uptown riding in your limousine
With your fine Park Avenue clothes
You had the Dom Perignon in your hand
And the spoon up your nose
And when you wake up in the morning
With your head on fire
And your eyes too bloody to see
Go on and cry in your coffee
But don't come bitchin' to me

Because you had to be a big shot, didn't you
You had to open up your mouth
You had to be a big shot, didn't you
All your friends were so knocked out
You had to have the last word, last night
You know what everything's about
You had to have a white hot spotlight
You had to be a big shot last night

January 20, 2022:  "Russian leaders have watched with mounting resentment as the transatlantic alliance has nearly doubled its membership since the end of the Cold War. President Vladimir Putin has drawn a red line in Ukraine."

Well, it's no big sin to stick your two cents in
If you know when to leave it alone
But you went over the line
You couldn't see it was time to go home
No, no, no, no, no, no, you had to be a big shot, didn't you
You had to open up your mouth
You had to be a big shot, didn't you
All your friends were so knocked out
You had to have the last word, last night
So much fun to be around
You had to have a white hot spotlight
You had to be a big shot last night

People in the US have the misguided notion that everyone in the world either loves us or "hates us for our freedom" and is jealous of our prosperity.  Some countries do love us but many see us as full of hubris and vanity.  We've made a lot of enemies around the world because of our attitudes - trying to surround Russia with NATO member countries was a big mistake.  Your old Uncle Kenny once dated a chick from Kolomna Russia.  She was a pretty and intelligent girl and great in the sack but she was an alcoholic and depressed and ultimately committed suicide while living in Florida.  She told me once that Russians are somewhat paranoid but for good reason.  She said that "you are not really paranoid if they really are out to get you".  I sort of understood the Russian position - if you've been invaded by the likes of Napoleon and Hitler in the last few hundred years, you're probably a little sensitive to having your rivals parked too close to home.

Lehman Brothers and Buffalo Jumps

There was an amazing but predictable massacre of the short sellers in the market today. If you think you’re going to get up with the chickens like your old Uncle Kenny, review the news and then short the market with a herd of other “tourist” investors, prepare to see the Big Guns come out in the afternoon and mop the floor with you and your Robinhood brethren. Let me explain. When the Big Guns see people wearing their hearts on their sleeves and not keeping their cards close to their vests, they love slaughtering them that same afternoon. Don’t be a buffalo. Don’t be shortsighted. You’ll lose to these smoothies each and every time. Just look at the Lehman Brothers chart for an historical reference.

Just Spitballing

"On April 16, 2014, Vice President Biden met with his son’s business partner, Devon Archer, at the White House. Five days later, Vice President Biden visited Ukraine, and he soon after was described in the press as the “public face of the administration’s handling of Ukraine.” The day after his visit, on April 22, Archer joined the board of Burisma. Six days later, on April 28, British officials seized $23 million from the London bank accounts of Burisma’s owner, Mykola Zlochevsky. Fourteen days later, on May 12, Hunter Biden joined the board of Burisma, and over the course of the next several years, Hunter Biden and Devon Archer were paid millions of dollars from a corrupt Ukrainian oligarch for their participation on the board. The 2014 protests in Kyiv came to be known as the Revolution of Dignity — a revolution against corruption in Ukraine. Following that revolution, Ukrainian political figures were desperate for U.S. support. Zlochevsky would have made sure relevant Ukrainian officials were well aware of Hunter’s appointment to Burisma’s board as leverage. Hunter Biden’s position on the board created an immediate potential conflict of interest that would prove to be problematic for both U.S. and Ukrainian officials and would affect the implementation of Ukraine policy. The Chairmen’s investigation into potential conflicts of interest began in August 2019, with Chairman Grassley’s letter to the Department of Treasury regarding potential conflicts of interest with respect to Obama administration policy relating to the Henniges transaction.1 During the Obama administration, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) approved a transaction that gave control over Henniges, an American maker of antivibration technologies with military applications, to a Chinese government-owned aviation company and a China-based investment firm with established ties to the Chinese government. One of the companies involved in the Henniges transaction was a billion-dollar private investment fund called Bohai Harvest RST (BHR). BHR was formed in November 2013 by a merger between the Chinese-government-linked firm Bohai Capital and a company named Rosemont Seneca Partners. Rosemont Seneca was formed in 2009 by Hunter Biden, the son of then-Vice President Joe Biden, by Chris Heinz, the stepson of former Secretary of State John Kerry, and others.2" Wouldn't it be a scream if Russian troops sacked the Burisma headquarters, discovered and made public solid proof of Joe and Hunter Biden's corrupt dealings? https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/HSGAC_Finance_Report_FINAL.pdf "f. Conclusion Hunter Biden’s role on Burisma’s board hindered the efforts of dedicated career-service individuals who were fighting for anticorruption measures in Ukraine. Because the vice president’s son had a direct link to a corrupt company and its owner, State Department officials were required to maintain situational awareness of Hunter Biden’s association with Burisma. Unfortunately, U.S. officials had no other choice but to endure the “awkward[ness]” of continuing to push an anticorruption agenda in Ukraine while the vice president’s son sat on the board of a Ukrainian company with a corrupt owner, earning tens of thousands of dollars a month. As Kent testified, he “would have advised any American not to get on the board of Zlochevsky’s company.” 58 Yet even though Hunter Biden’s position on Burisma’s board cast a shadow over the work of those advancing anticorruption reforms in Ukraine, the Committees are only aware of two individuals who raised concerns to their superiors. Despite the efforts of these individuals, their concerns appear to have fallen on deaf ears."

Coupledom Memes

Consider This Your Smoke Alarm Ringing

The Federal Reserve began hinting last year that it was soon to remove the accommodative policy. At present, the “rubber meets the road” in March when they are likely to move the overnight rate upward by 25 or 50 basis points. This is the first of several actions they are due to take. With the recent Russian and Ukrainian events, who knows if that will be the case next month. The Fed is painted into a corner. The stock market is going to spank investors. The smart money left weeks ago – it’s just Mom and Pop and some Robin Hood traders now holding the bag.

Next Fed Meeting on the Calendar - March 15 How Appropriate

The Ides of March is the 74th day in the Roman calendar, corresponding to 15 March. It was marked by several religious observances and was notable for the Romans as a deadline for settling debts. The Ides were the designated days for settling debt each month in the Roman empire and generally included the seven days preceding the Ides for this purpose. No doubt debtors who could not pay their debts considered the Ides to be unlucky days as they were typically thrown into prison or forced into slavery.

The Search for WMD's in Iraq Was Akin to O.J.'s Search for the Real Killer of Nicole and Ron

"But the U.S. has intelligence that Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine, with commanders on the ground making specific plans for how they would maneuver in their sectors of the battlefield, a U.S. official told CBS News." Our "intelligence agencies" (yes, the same ones that insisted that there were WMD's in Iraq) insist that Putin's invasion is imminent. Let that sink in for a minute.

Putin - The Perfect Boogey Man For the Brain Dead

"The left has a new boogeyman: Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin. Russian hackers, many liberals say, cost Hillary Clinton the election. Russia is certainly a bad actor. I only wish the left had noticed years ago. And no, I don’t excuse conservatives who fall for the Russian lure: They should know better. As for Clinton’s electoral loss, I doubt Russia is to blame. It’s hard for either party to win three elections in a row. Also, Clinton wasn’t popular, and she ran a bad campaign." - this is the opening line of an article written in 2017. Every time they get their tit in a wringer, they trot out their favorite whipping boy. This is supposed to distract you from the fact that your duly elected (??) el Presidente' has approval ratings that are in the toilet, the Democratic Congress is nearly as unpopular, that you are getting ass raped each and every time that you visit the gas station and your grocery store, that you overpaid for your house and used Ford with 50,000 miles on it (by several thousands of dollars) and you're now stuck with payments on a very long term cheap financing plan and that every time that you visit a major American city you have to have eyes in the back of your head in order to avoid being carjacked, mugged or otherwise harassed by some ass clown who is high on meth. But, keep worrying about what Putin is doing half way across the planet in a country that you could not find on a world map if your life depended upon it America.

Why CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, etc. Suck Ass in Pictures

Boy Wonder Trudeau is now making arrests, freezing funds and confiscating the animals owned by those protesting his Covid mandates. Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Thursday that financial institutions have been actively freezing the accounts of people linked to the medical freedom protests in Ottawa, which has left an unknown number of protesters and donors in financial limbo, according to state-owned CBC. Freeland said that the RCMP and other law enforcement agencies have been gathering intelligence on convoy protesters and their supporters, and have been sharing that information with financial institutions in order to restrict access to both cash and crypto. "The names of both individuals and entities as well as crypto wallets have been shared by the RCMP with financial institutions and accounts have been frozen and more accounts will be frozen," she said, referring to crypto exchange accounts. The law also allows banks to target for account closure donors to the GoFundMe and the GiveSendGo fundraising campaigns that fuelled this protest. Freeland said she wouldn't get into the "specifics of whose accounts are being frozen." Citing terrorist financing laws, the government has forced crowdfunding websites and payment providers to register with the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), the government's financial intelligence unit. In a final warning to the assembled protesters, Freeland said those who have their big rigs on Ottawa's streets will see their insurance cancelled and their corporate accounts suspended — a move that could make it difficult for these drivers to ever work again. "The consequences are real and they will bite," she said. Obey the Boy Wonder and his Right Hand Skank or suffer the consequences, Canada. What a pair of assholes.

Gas Prices Still Have Room To Run

From ZeroHedge: Readers may recall in early January, we cited Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis, who said Americans should prepare for an average price of $4 by spring. With average US prices already around $3.488 as supplies dwindle amid geopolitical tensions, prices will remain in an upward trend. There's also the start of the "multi-month transition to summer gasoline, further adding to the rise at the pump," de Haan added. I love it - I'm thrilled when I see the price increase at the local Murphy station (the cheapest outlet for gasoline in my area). At last check, they were at $3.11 for regular unleaded. You asked for it. Bend over and take it America. Petrol Blues - The Rolling Stones Please, Mr. President, say it isn't so How I have to sell my cadillac that I just paid for I talk to Mr. Getty, And I talk to Standard Oil They say they got plenty but they aint gonna part for no more My friend says the trouble is This country's too goddamn big Maybe we should pull it in from the ages a little bit Maybe that way we'll have so far to go I called Mr. Getty, I even called-up Texaco, Texaco They got plenty left, they got plenty to go Hey Mr. President, say it isn't so Aw, Mr President, say it isn't so Why do I have to sell my Cadillac, I just paid for, I just paid for

Remembering Tom Massie – Republican Congressman from Kentucky

From the Washington Post: "In Stamford, Conn., a 46-year-old resident pleaded guilty after putting a portion of $4 million in coronavirus aid toward the purchase of a Porsche. And a Mercedes. And a BMW. In Somerset, N.J., a 51-year-old woman allegedly invented employees, inflated wages and fabricated entire tax filings to collect $1 million in loans. And in St. Petersburg, Fla., a federal judge sentenced to prison a 63-year-old man who obtained $800,000 on behalf of businesses that did not exist. The cases and charges, each announced over the past month, count among hundreds involving a slew of programs enacted by Congress in the darkest days of the coronavirus pandemic — money dispatched with such an urgency at the time that it is now putting Washington’s watchdogs to the test." Chock full of fraud and the Congressmen / women who voted for the CARES Act avoided having a written record of who did and did not vote for this clusterfuck. They were cowards who did not want to have their names attached to the bill should it blow up in the face of the country - personally, I think that many of them did know that it was a fuck up but did not care enough to even try to prevent it from passing. Trump would have done anything to grease the skids to re-election - anyone who would sell "Trump Steaks" and "Trump University" would certainly go along with the bullshit known as the CARES Act if he or she thought it would help to get them another 4 years in the big chair.

It takes balls to stand up for your beliefs when everyone is telling you that you are wrong. Thomas Massie had balls and he was right to try to force a recorded vote on the CARES Act. He knew that this was going to be a bad deal in the long run and he tried to get the supporters for all of this pork barrel spending on the written record with a “yes” or “no” vote. Instead, he got steamrolled by Democrats, Republicans and former President Trump. It reminded me of when Ron Paul was part of a televised debate and warmongering John McCain viciously attacked him for not supporting the asinine idea of running around the globe poking our fingers into the chests of other countries and trying to tell them how to run their affairs. From POLITICO: "Led by President Donald Trump, both Republicans and Democrats lined up to whack the GOP lawmaker who tried to derail the bipartisan stimulus bill. “Looks like a third rate Grandstander named @RepThomasMassie, a Congressman from, unfortunately, a truly GREAT State, Kentucky, wants to vote against the new Save Our Workers Bill in Congress,” Trump wrote on Twitter. House Republican leadership had been concerned that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) would move to demand a recorded tally as opposed to a voice vote on the historic measure, throwing a last-minute hurdle in the legislation’s path to the president’s desk. Two hours after Trump’s initial post, Massie confirmed that he would do just that, tweeting: “I swore an oath to uphold the constitution, and I take that oath seriously. In a few moments I will request a vote on the CARES Act which means members of Congress will vote on it by pushing ‘yes’ or ‘no’ or ‘present.’” Massie ultimately failed on Friday afternoon when the House approved the package. But his threat compelled dozens, if not hundreds, of lawmakers to return to Capitol Hill from their home districts, navigating across interstates and through airports at a time when public health officials have urged Americans to avoid nonessential travel and gathering in large groups. “He just wants the publicity. He can’t stop it, only delay, which is both dangerous ... & costly,” Trump tweeted of Massie. “Workers & small businesses need money now in order to survive. Virus wasn’t their fault. It is ‘HELL’ dealing with the Dems, had to give up some stupid things in order to get the ‘big picture’ done. 90% GREAT! WIN BACK HOUSE, but throw Massie out of Republican Party!” massie.house.gov

"Tourist" Investors Get Spanked Hard....Again

They're insatiable. "Dow has its worst day of the year, falling more than 600 points amid Russia-Ukraine invasion fears" From what I can tell, they're getting the spanking that they crave.

Jefferson's Warning

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered." Sound familiar? Just remember, Cash is King. Debt is for losers. The only way to win the game is to not play it and stick to your guns.

"My point is simple…. Inflation is here, it’s here to stay and it’s here to really, really, really ***k us up." This is a quote from an article on Morning Porrige. Here to stay? Hmmm. I disagree. We have an economy that is 70% driven by consumer purchases. In case no one has noticed, the consumer is "tapping out". There is a finite amount of debt (and the misery that always accompanies debt) that the consumer can handle. What’s next? Ten year loans on used cars? 50 year mortgages? Better yet – generational mortgages that can enslave not just the borrower but his descendants as well? Don’t laugh or think it impossible – the idea has been tried. From Science Direct: "A recent innovation in the Japanese real estate industry to promote home ownership is the creation of a 100-year mortgage term. The home, encumbered by the mortgage, becomes an ancestral property and is passed on from grandparent to grandchild in a multigenerational fashion. We analyze the implications of this innovative practice, contrast it with the conventional 30-year mortgage popular in Western nations and explore its unique benefits and limitations within the Japanese economic and cultural framework. Through the use of simulation, the conclusion is reached that the 100-year mortgage has failed to increase the affordability of homes. Instead, affluent homeowners are more likely to employ long-term mortgages as an estate-planning tool to reduce inheritance taxes." The cure for high prices is....high prices.

Elizabeth Samet - Courage to Write a Realistic Account of Those Who Fought WWII

The kicker is that she teaches at West Point and is the loving daughter of a WWII veteran. America views WWII and the veterans who fought it through beer goggles and has for many years. She had the courage to write the truth about why young men (and women) signed up to fight. I'm a $$ guy - if you know history, you know that the US was coming from a state of deep depression and had a HUGE population of poor hillbillies, white trash, “restless urban youths” and negroes. The idea of a Federal Reserve playing "Mommy" to corporations and individuals and sending out "stimmies" had not at that time been hatched. At that time, if you were poor, you were also hungry and looking for a job (legitimate or criminal did not matter if the money was there). Uncle Sam was offering you a job if you didn't mind getting shot at and doing group calisthenics with a bunch of other losers.

Neel "Crazy Eyes" Kashkari - Wrong in 2008, Wrong in 2020, Will Be Wrong Again in the Not Too Distant Future

From 60 Minutes 2020 interview: MARGARET BRENNAN: We turn now to Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He also led the Treasury Department's 2008 TARP program. He joins us from Minneapolis. Thank you for joining us. Clearly, you know what a crisis is like and how to navigate one. I want to ask you about the jobs crisis right now, because 16 million Americans have filed for unemployment since these restrictions went into place due to the virus. The St. Louis Fed says we could see 47 million Americans losing their jobs. Where is your prediction of a bottom? - continued: MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. And- and the Fed is part of this strategy because as we've detailed this week, there are about 2.3 trillion dollars in loans that the Federal Reserve that you're part of could issue to businesses, to states and to local governments. You said in- in the last crisis that the mistake was going sort of too small and being too timid. This time around, is there enough money being thrown at this problem? KASHKARI: I think there is in terms of what the Fed can do. I think our chairman is being very, very aggressive. He's learned from our experience in 2008 and the whole Federal Reserve is being as aggressive as possible. That's the right thing to do. I think Congress is also being very aggressive. But again, it goes back to the progression of the virus. If we're going to have economic distress until we have a vaccine, then it's going to be up to Congress to keep coming back to provide support to the American people. We can't shut down the economy for 18 months, but we need to find ways of getting the people who are healthy, who are at lower risk back to work and then providing the assistance to those who are most at risk, who are going to need to be quarantined or isolated for the foreseeable future. That's a real challenge for all of us.

Trudeau - Canada's Choice

From The Daily Reckoning: Trudeau Looks to Invoke “Emergencies Act”

Yesterday, police cleared protesters from the Ambassador Bridge. Over two dozen people were peacefully arrested, and a number of trucks were towed away. Now Justin Trudeau is threatening to invoke Canada’s “Emergencies Act” to crack down on protesters. The act would confer sweeping powers on the federal government to restore public order, though only temporarily. It could involve the banning of public assemblies and restricting travel. How far is Trudeau willing to go? Will the truckers give in? Who will blink first? We’ll see. But the Canadian Parliament must first approve the resolution before it can go forward. Incidentally, Trudeau isn’t opposed to all public protests. He sanctioned the BLM protests in the summer of 2020 and even took part in them. But when workers resist the forceful imposition of experimental gene therapies that don’t stop people from spreading or acquiring the virus, and the ridiculous policies that threaten their livelihoods needlessly, Trudeau draws the line. You would think that someone who was triply vaxxed and still got COVID anyway would see the absurdity of his position. But evidently he doesn’t.

Hot Girl on Girl Action

Made you look. Date 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 01/03/2022 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.22 0.40 0.78 1.04 1.37 1.55 1.63 2.05 2.01 01/04/2022 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.22 0.38 0.77 1.02 1.37 1.57 1.66 2.10 2.07 01/05/2022 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.22 0.41 0.83 1.10 1.43 1.62 1.71 2.12 2.09 01/06/2022 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.23 0.45 0.88 1.15 1.47 1.66 1.73 2.12 2.09 01/07/2022 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.24 0.43 0.87 1.17 1.50 1.69 1.76 2.15 2.11 01/10/2022 0.05 0.06 0.13 0.28 0.46 0.92 1.21 1.53 1.71 1.78 2.15 2.11 01/11/2022 0.04 0.05 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.90 1.22 1.51 1.69 1.75 2.13 2.08 01/12/2022 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.27 0.48 0.92 1.21 1.50 1.67 1.74 2.13 2.08 01/13/2022 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.47 0.91 1.18 1.47 1.64 1.70 2.10 2.05 01/14/2022 0.05 0.05 0.13 0.30 0.51 0.99 1.26 1.55 1.72 1.78 2.18 2.12 01/18/2022 0.05 0.06 0.16 0.37 0.58 1.06 1.35 1.65 1.82 1.87 2.24 2.18 01/19/2022 0.05 0.06 0.17 0.36 0.57 1.04 1.33 1.62 1.78 1.83 2.20 2.14 01/20/2022 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.36 0.60 1.08 1.34 1.62 1.77 1.83 2.19 2.14 01/21/2022 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.35 0.58 1.01 1.28 1.54 1.70 1.75 2.13 2.07 01/24/2022 0.05 0.09 0.19 0.39 0.58 0.99 1.25 1.53 1.69 1.75 2.15 2.10 01/25/2022 0.05 0.09 0.19 0.39 0.65 1.02 1.28 1.56 1.73 1.78 2.18 2.12 01/26/2022 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.40 0.70 1.13 1.39 1.66 1.81 1.85 2.22 2.16 01/27/2022 0.04 0.14 0.20 0.43 0.75 1.18 1.43 1.66 1.78 1.81 2.17 2.09 01/28/2022 0.04 0.10 0.19 0.43 0.75 1.15 1.38 1.61 1.74 1.78 2.14 2.07 01/31/2022 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.49 0.78 1.18 1.39 1.62 1.75 1.79 2.17 2.11 02/01/2022 0.04 0.10 0.19 0.48 0.78 1.18 1.39 1.63 1.76 1.81 2.19 2.12 02/02/2022 0.04 0.10 0.19 0.45 0.76 1.16 1.38 1.60 1.74 1.78 2.17 2.11 02/03/2022 0.03 0.15 0.20 0.48 0.78 1.19 1.42 1.66 1.78 1.82 2.20 2.14 02/04/2022 0.05 0.12 0.23 0.56 0.89 1.31 1.55 1.78 1.90 1.93 2.29 2.23 02/07/2022 0.03 0.14 0.27 0.58 0.88 1.30 1.54 1.76 1.88 1.92 2.28 2.22 02/08/2022 0.03 0.14 0.25 0.59 0.91 1.35 1.59 1.81 1.93 1.96 2.31 2.25 02/09/2022 0.04 0.15 0.26 0.57 0.91 1.36 1.61 1.82 1.92 1.94 2.31 2.25 02/10/2022 0.05 0.31 0.40 0.74 1.14 1.61 1.82 1.96 2.03 2.03 2.37 2.30 02/11/2022 0.03 0.22 0.36 0.71 1.07 1.50 1.71 1.84 1.92 1.92 2.30 2.24 02/14/2022 0.03 0.25 0.43 0.76 1.13 1.58 1.80 1.90 1.98 1.98 2.35 2.29 Actually, I'm looking at the U.S. Treasury yield curve this morning. This action is almost as hot...OK, it's like watching paint dry.

S&P 500 FUTURES -44.25-1.00%

Revenge of the Landlord

The headline from the AP story: Landlords finding ways to evict after getting rental aid. "There have also been cases in Georgia and Texas where landlords who received assistance moved to end leases early, increased rents to unaffordable levels or found other reasons than nonpayment to evict someone, lawyers said. “As it is right now, it doesn’t seem to be working as intended,” said Tori Tavormina, an eviction prevention specialist with Texas Housers. “It feels much more like it’s a program that is alleviating the pressure of the eviction crisis but not solving the underlying problems.” My comment: gee, a government program and intervention in contract law that did not work out as planned...who would have thought that might come to pass???

It's Most Difficult at Evening - I So Miss You

When I look at his things, his empty kennel or hear a song like "Kite" from U2, the memory of that last day comes over me like a flood. It's been a little more than four weeks ago but sometimes, it feels like it just happened. I know that time will help. The ache from missing him reminds me that I'm still human. Something is about to give I can feel it coming I think I know what it means I'm not afraid to die I'm not afraid to live And when I'm flat on my back I hope to feel like I did And hardness, it sets in You need some protection The thinner the skin I want you to know That you don't need me anymore I want you to know You don't need anyone or anything at all Who's to say where the wind will take you? Who's to say what it is will break you? I don't know which way the wind will blow Who's to know when the time's come around? Don't want to see you cry I know that this is not goodbye In summer, I can taste the salt in the sea There's a kite blowing out of control on a breeze I wonder what's gonna happen to you You wonder what has happened to me I'm a man, I'm not a child A man who sees The shadow behind your eyes Who's to say where the wind will take you? Who's to say what it is will break you? I don't know where the wind will blow Who's to know when the time's come around Don't want to see you cry I know that this is not goodbye Did I waste it? Not so much I couldn't taste it Life should be fragrant Rooftop to the basement The last of the rockstars When hip-hop drove the big cars In the time when new media Was the big idea That was the big idea

CPI - Shit Meets Fan

The Democrats and the Fed have simultaneously painted themselves into a corner and they know it. Their desperate strategy is to change the narrative (again). Instead of taking their lumps like a fucking man, they’ve decided to blame everything under the sun for their fuck ups. Years ago, Hoenig was warning the Fed (and Congress) that their easy money policies were going to come back and bite them in the ass and now the chickens are home to roost. The Democrats overplayed their hand when it came to Covid and they just could not bring themselves to relinquish the power that all of the Panic Porn brought them. All but the brain-dead (and some members of teachers’ unions which is sort of synonymous with the brain-dead) are sick of their bullshit where masking and lockdowns are concerned and they know it – that’s why they are now “pivoting” and trying to tone down all of the hysteria that they themselves brought upon the country. They suck – they are just the most self-aggrandizing, disingenuous, effeminate pieces of shit that you could possibly elect to high office. They know that they are likely to lose the mid-term elections and they are now trying to cover their asses. Even that fat fuck Pritzker in Illinois is now talking about doing away with the masking mandates because he is losing popularity among voters. The Fed is talking about all of the culprits for high inflation – Omicron, the supply chain snags, the lack of chips from Taiwan, blah, blah, blah. No mention of the gigantic elephant in the room – the inconvenient truth that they pulled from the rectum of a willing Jay Powell and subsequently injected TRILLIONS of dollars into the monetary system over the past two years. When you have people at the table like “Crazy Eyes” Kashkari, token homo Negro Bostic, Obama surrogate mother Yellen and the like spewing their bullshit, what else do you expect other than a colossal fuck up and then the lack of any shred of courage to admit to the fuck up? Embrace the suck, America. You brought it upon yourselves. Personally, I can’t wait to see all of the idiots in the country who bought gigantic SUV’s and pick up trucks over the past 3 years and financed them with usurious loans get bent over each and every time that they go to the gas pump. Cry me a river dipshits.

Hoenig vs Bostic - Real Experience & Intellect vs The End Result of Experiments in Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/28/inflation-interest-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177 

Between 2008 and 2014, the Federal Reserve printed more than $3.5 trillion in new bills. To put that in perspective, it’s roughly triple the amount of money that the Fed created in its first 95 years of existence. Three centuries’ worth of growth in the money supply was crammed into a few short years. The money poured through the veins of the financial system and stoked demand for assets like stocks, corporate debt and commercial real estate bonds, driving up prices across markets. Hoenig was the one Fed leader who voted consistently against this course of action, starting in 2010. In doing so, he pitted himself against the Fed’s powerful chair at the time, Ben Bernanke, who was widely regarded as a hero for the ambitious rescue plans he designed and oversaw. Hoenig lost his fight. Throughout 2010, the FOMC votes were routinely 11 against one, with Hoenig being the one. He retired from the Fed in late 2011, and after that, a reputation hardened around Hoenig as the man who got it wrong. He is remembered as something like a cranky Old Testament prophet who warned incessantly, and incorrectly, about one thing: the threat of coming inflation. But this version of history isn’t true. While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely what drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system. On all of these points, Hoenig was correct. And on all of these points, he was ignored. We are now living in a world that Hoenig warned about. 

My comment for point of reference - Hoenig was the son of a plumber.

The Fed is now in a vise. Inflation is rising faster than the Fed believed it would even a few months ago, with higher prices for gas, goods and automobiles being fueled by the Fed’s unprecedented money printing programs. This comes after years of the Fed steadily pumping up the price of assets like stocks and bonds through its zero-percent interest rates and quantitative easing during and after Hoenig’s time on the FOMC. To respond to rising inflation, the Fed has signaled that it will start hiking interest rates next year. But if that happens, there is every reason to expect that it will cause stock and bond markets to fall, perhaps precipitously, or even cause a recession. “There is no painless solution,” Hoenig said in a recent interview. “It’s going to be difficult. And the longer you wait the more painful it will end up being.” As a bank examiner, Hoenig spent the 1970s watching as the Fed’s policies helped pile on the inflationary tinder that would later ignite. These policies are known as “easy money” policies, meaning that the Fed was keeping interest rates so low that borrowing was cheap and easy. The Fed had kept interest rates so low during the 1960s that they were effectively negative when accounting for inflation by the late 1970s. When rates are effectively negative, that might be called a super-easy money policy. This kind of environment fuels inflation because all that easy money is looking for a place to go. Economists call this phenomenon “too many dollars chasing too few goods,” meaning that everybody is spending the easy money, which drives up the prices of the things they are buying because demand is high. Importantly, the Fed creates these conditions by creating more and more dollars, or increasing the monetary supply, as the economists say. As a bank examiner, Hoenig realized another very important thing. Easy money policies don’t just drive up the price of consumer goods, like bread and cars. The money also drives up price of assets like stocks, bonds and real estate. During the 1970s, low interest rates fueled demand for assets, which eventually inflated asset bubbles across the Midwest, including in heavy farming states, such as Kansas and Nebraska, and in the energy-producing state of Oklahoma. When asset prices like this rise quickly, it creates that dreaded thing called an asset bubble.

Bernanke was a fucking idiot and those who followed him were fucking idiots.

Meanwhile, Back In Iraq

"This agreement and its implications for global security and economy were widely discussed back then. But as 2021 neared its end it became clear that Iran’s neighbor and ex-nemesis Iraq was the real star of the Chinese Belt and Road strategy in the Middle East. According to a report from Fudan University’s Center for Green Finance and Development in Shanghai, last year Iraq received $10.5 billion in investment under the Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Iraq has become the third-biggest Belt and Road partner in energy engagement, after Russia and Pakistan. Overall Chinese investment in Arab and Middle Eastern countries rose by about 360% in 2021, while construction engagement increased by 116%, compared to 2020, the study said." So, the US foolishly squanders blood and treasure in a country for nearly two decades so the Chinese can waltz into the arena and cut deals for future oil supplies. Iraq will be the real beneficiary in this part of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. I don't find fault with Iraq doing what is in its best interest. They have a shit load of oil, the Chinese have a shit load of money and the Americans have proven to be an unreliable partner with an "empire" in decline. Face it, the leadership that this country elects is a fucking joke and has been for quite a while. Why? Because a lot of “great fucking Americans” insist upon exercising their God given right to vote. These are people who are complete fucking morons but God damned it if they don’t insist upon "having their voices heard". Just because you can do something doesn't necessarily mean that you should. We left Afghanistan with our tail between our legs (again, after squandering lives and money for two decades). Now the Afghans will go back to doing what they did before our invasion, including growing poppies for the raw ingredient in heroin that will be exported back to the US to feed the very large and growing number of junkies in this country. But wait, there’s more! Now, we are going to send in our increasingly WOKE military to fight the Russians who have been defending a country and region against invaders for a thousand years. Good luck. Personally, I think that any right thinking young man or woman is a fool to sign up for Uncle Sam’s misguided adventures abroad. The leadership in this country is a fucking joke and you’d have to be a complete moron to volunteer to do the bidding of these corrupt, imbecilic empty suits.

So Many Good Times Over Several Years - Goofy Puppy at Home, All Business When Hunting

Why This Motherfucker is My Hero - in The Fed's Own Words from 2005

President's Message: Volcker's Handling of the Great Inflation Taught Us Much January 01, 2005 By William Poole Unbeknownst to many, last fall was the silver anniversary of a watershed moment in Fed history and the economic history of the country. On Oct. 6, 1979, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker took dramatic steps to rein in the runaway inflation that had been sapping the strength of our economy since the mid-1960s. Without his bold change in monetary policy and his determination to stick with it through several painful years, the U.S. economy would have continued its downward spiral. By reversing the misguided policies of his predecessors, Volcker set the table for the long economic expansions of the 1980s and 1990s. How bad was the period of the Great Inflation? The inflation rate, a mere 1 percent in 1965, hit 14 percent by 1980. Unemployment trended up from a low of 3.5 percent (annual average) in 1969 to 9.7 percent in 1982. The stock market was in the dumps. Oil prices jumped off the charts. Presidents Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter became desperate enough to tinker with price controls, the results being disastrous. Volcker, in office only two months, took the radical step of switching Fed policy from targeting interest rates to targeting the money supply. The days of "easy credit" turned into the days of "very expensive credit." The prime lending rate exceeded 21 percent. Unemployment reached double digits in some months. The dollar depreciated significantly in world foreign exchange markets. Volcker's tough medicine led to not one, but two, recessions before prices finally stabilized. We've learned a lot from that period. For starters, ideas matter. Bad economic advice, much of it from economists, contributed greatly to policy mistakes in the pre-Volcker days. Keynesian economics had been in vogue by then for decades. This school argued that the government could tax and spend its way to full employment. Inflation was acceptable if it put more people to work. Thankfully, such thinking has been discredited today, although our economic models still need improvement. The Fed also learned that to be effective, it must have the confidence of the markets and the public. During the 1960s and early 1970s, various Fed chairmen made rumblings about fighting inflation, but they always backed down when the complaints about the resulting higher cost of credit grew loud. Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin, for example, was no match for President Lyndon Johnson, who depended on cheap credit to finance the Vietnam War and his Great Society. Because the markets observed the Fed's lack of fortitude, they had no expectations that the Fed would conquer inflation. It is extremely costly to bring inflation down if inflation expectations don't come down. Not until Volcker showed that the Fed could take the heat did the markets believe that the Fed was serious this time. Another lesson from the Great Inflation is that the Fed can only achieve its goal of maximum sustainable employment if it is successful in achieving its goal of price stability. The idea that we can let down our guard on inflation to increase employment is unwise in the long term because higher inflation eventually destroys rather than creates jobs. We've also learned our lesson to speak up. In the 1960s and 1970s, not everyone in the Fed System believed that an inflation/employment tradeoff would work. But these people didn't forcefully vocalize their worries. Everyone connected to the Fed today must be vigilant in ensuring that all sides of a debate are given a forum. I think we do a good job at airing debates today, but I believe the public should also be privy to this communication. If we are transparent in all that we do, we will have the public's support when tough medicine is needed again. Last, we learned that we need strong leaders. Paul Volcker was vilified for years because of the steps he had to take to break the back of inflation. "Wanted" posters targeted him for "killing" so many small businesses. Yet he remained resolute, doing what he knew was best for the country in the long term. We are also fortunate that President Ronald Reagan supported Volcker and the cause of price stability. Let's hope we always have such strong leaders at the helm.

Best Picture - 1979 - The Deer Hunter

Private payrolls fell by 301,000 for January versus the estimate for a 200,000 gain, according to payrolls processing firm ADP. You saw it here several days ago - open jobs will either be filled or they will evaporate into thin air. 30 Trillion in debt (thanks to BOTH parties). A Federal Reserve that is relaying at every opportunity that they can no longer pull $$ from Jay Powell's ass unless the country is cool with $10 per gallon gas and $4 loaves of plain white bread. Inflation is not going to go away anytime soon. Why? Because there are many State governments, including here in Missouri, that are flush with cash that they received from Uncle Sam in the previous year. Those State governments are going to be spending that cash on things. They may pick up the unemployment slack created by shrinking private payrolls, who knows? It's going to be a bumpy year.