No Recessions Here (Yet)

What if the Fed threw a party and no one attended?  At the moment, the long awaited "crash" in real estate and equities has not materialized.  The "wealth effect" is alive and well as Great Americans shrug off higher interest rates, a looming end to the student loan repayment moratorium, the end of pandemic a.k.a. "scamdemic" aid, etc.

However, I have recently heard a number of people make the statement "I do not know where my money goes".  It appears on pay day and it just vaporizes in short order because of persistent and relentless inflation.  

My guess is that what has just occurred in the last two years will never be reversed.  You will never again see a trip to the grocery store cost the same or less than it did in 2019.

Watching Treasury yields is like watching paint dry.  Most people do not have the patience for it.  The unwinding of the yield curve inversion between the 2 year and the 10 year is "where the action is" - it's like watching box turtles race.  Prices are falling on the 10 year thus driving up the long term rate - a lot of adjustable rate debt is going to reprice higher starting in 2024.