BTFD is becoming STFU

A lot of retail investors and stock market novices have done well in 2021 by following a simple formula called "BTFD" (buy the fucking dip). As of this past quarter, insider selling has picked up the pace. Insiders have been strategically selling into a hot market and reaping large payoffs. The pace of selling has been high enough to keep prices high without flooding the market with discounts and triggering an avalanche. From CNBC: “CEOs and corporate insiders have sold a record $69 billion in stock in 2021, as looming tax hikes and lofty share prices encourage many to take profits. As of Monday, sales by insiders are up 30% from 2020 to $69 billion, and up 79% versus a 10-year average, according to InsiderScore/Verity. The selling is likely to increase even more as December is often an active month for sales due to tax planning.” The wealthy and well connected are keeping the frog in the pot of water while gradually turning up the heat. Before the frog knows what’s going on, the water will be a bubbling cauldron. The Fed has been fairly transparent about their short term intentions by stating that QE is ending faster than originally anticipated and that they are planning three interest rate hikes in 2022. The only reason that they are doing so is because inflation is far higher than they will admit; they’ve let the genie out of the bottle and the world is watching as the dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency just moved much closer to midnight on the financial doomsday clock. It won’t be enough to stop the inflation freight train. Their actions will be too timid – it will be the second coming of Arthur Burns (the Chairman under Nixon and Ford). Jerome Powell is no Volcker. He is a Burns. Translation: he’s a pussy and he’s surrounded by nitwits like wild eyed Neel “Cash ‘n’ Carry” Kashkari. That was evident during his time under Trump. He’s weak – until a Volker type is installed at the Fed, you’ll continue to see escalating prices for the everyday things you buy. Recently, I sold a chainsaw to a farmer who was telling me that his costs for the upcoming growing season will be higher. Input costs like fertilizer, seed, fuel, etc. will all be higher in 2022 when he starts planting in the spring. Who do you think is going to pay for those increases down the line, cupcake? BTFD is being replaced by STFU – my own abbreviation for the phrase for “Sell The Fucking Upside”.