Coming Soon to a Neighborhood Near You

The Federal protections and moratoriums are ending. A few Governors in Blue States are extending protections and kicking the can down the road as far as they can for the benefit of their constituents but the dike will burst. As usual, the primary beneficiaries of this clusterfuck will be the lawyers and the court staff that will work some overtime to clear out their dockets. Covid didn't cause this – mismanagement and inept, pandering politicians (primarily Democrats) caused this. After watching Democrat politicians in action for the past 30 years, I’ve come to the conclusion that they are a smooth talking bunch of assclowns who could not manage their way out of a wet paper sack if their mothers’ lives depended upon their doing so. All that they touch eventually turns to shit. The only thing worse is the number of morons who fall for their “oh so transparent schtick” over and over and over again thinking “This time will be different”. The people who repeatedly vote for these charlatans have to be among the most stupid people on the planet. If you’re going to be stupid, you’d better be tough. I thank the Good Lord above everyday that I don’t have a dog in this fight anymore. I’m neither a banker nor a borrower. Through some hard work and a little grace from above, I’ve managed a nice little free and clear roof over my head with no neighbors breathing down my neck and I’m only an observer of this totally predictable and manmade fuck-up.

Stalling airplane wings and the housing market

Wing stall Stall is an undesirable phenomenon in which aircraft wings experience increased air resistance and decreased lift. It can cause an airplane to crash. Stall occurs when a plane is under too great an angle of attack (the angle of attack is the angle between the plane and the direction of flight). The wing will always stall from the wingtip and back to the root of the wing. This has the effect of bringing the apparent wind direction underneath the wing more than before; increasing the angle of attack and causing the tip of the wing to stall. The tip stalls first in this instance because as the plane rolls, the tip is moving faster than the root of the wing.

“The markets where we’re seeing the most price cuts were flying a little too close to the sun earlier this year,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for the brokerage Redfin. “Sellers got eager in their asking prices. It was not sustainable and benefited from pandemic trends that still persist, but not as extremely.” Across the U.S., home-price appreciation slowed for a second straight month in September as part of a modest cooldown, Zillow Group Inc. reported this week. The number of homes with price cuts is growing, with counties near Denver, Salt Lake City and Indianapolis seeing more than half of listings get reductions, according to Redfin. Even some of the hottest areas where workers from large urban cities sprawled out to, such as the counties including Portland, Maine, and Tacoma, Washington, have had cuts on more than 40% of listings, Redfin data show. In Idaho’s Canyon County, about eight out of 10 listings have had price cuts, the biggest share in the U.S. It’s a popular area for people who can’t afford nearby Boise, a city of about 230,000 that has boomed as Californians and other escapees of high-cost regions spread out. Its biggest employers include Albertsons Cos. and Micron Technology Inc., which are both based there. Homes started when the market looked unstoppable are getting discounted as they’re completed. A Toll Brothers Inc. house in Nampa with a gourmet kitchen and dual-sink vanity in the master bathroom is on sale for $575,000, down $44,000 since it was listed at the end of June. CBH Homes, the most prolific builder in Idaho, has 99 Canyon County homes with active listings on Realtor.com — and 52 have price reductions. My comment: it's happening cupcake. Pay no attention to what the cheerleading Realtor is telling you. This metaphorical airplane wing will stall just like it did in 2009. As a matter of fact, I used the very same analogy to explain how the stall will spread during the last real estate market bust. I just wonder if this one is going to be equally or even more spectacular than the last one.

On-line review of my last banking job

I worked for Purina Credit Union for several years before the then CEO orchestrated the acquisition of PCU by what was then American Eagle Credit Union. As PCU employees, we were grandfathered into the new organization. Fortunately, we retained our salary levels and benefits. Prior to our arrivals, PCU employees were interviewed so that we would be assigned roles within AECU. I was assigned to the Indirect Lending department where sales finance contracts were purchased from auto dealerships in MO, GA, FL and TX. I found it curious that AECU had a practice of purchasing loan contracts between dealerships and borrowers where the borrowers were not eligible for actual credit union membership. I questioned this practice and was told by the then VP of the Indirect Lending that this was not common knowledge and that no regulator had questioned the practice to that date. In effect, the credit union was making loans to individuals who it knew in advance were not members and who could not qualify for membership. The spread (loan contract rate over prevailing deposit rates paid to members of the credit union for their savings) was incredible. The terms under which dealers could sell their paper to the credit union were overly generous. The borrowers buying the automobiles were often charged more than the actual MSRP and were often allowed to finance up to the $6,000 worth of “add-on’s” such as warranties, GAP insurance, credit life insurances, nitrogen in the tires, etc., etc. Many of the applications submitted to the credit union for “underwriting” were not well scrutinized and often, information obtained solely from credit reports was the basis for approval or denial. Strangely, many of the applicant/borrowers were “managers, VP’s, big wigs” for their employers and always making nearly 100 g’s per year and always had over 5 years of employment history according to the car dealers’ applications. I was told in no uncertain terms that I was not to investigate the claims made if the applicants’ credit scores were beyond certain thresholds. The “supervisor” / “Sr. Underwriter” of the department and the department’s “Manager” literally took me into a conference room and gave me a good scolding for having the audacity to research a potential borrower’s employment history as part of my underwriting function. I was told by the “Sr. Underwriter” that the automobile dealers were in effect “our members” and that our job was to “buy contracts” (her words, not my own). That same “supervisor” has since been promoted. By her own admission in subsequent conversations, she did not know what a “breach of contract lawsuit” was even after 15 plus years of employment as a loan underwriter (my own unspoken thought at the time was that I was pretty sure she knew what a paternity lawsuit was given her personal experiences but that’s a different subject altogether). I warned the VP of the department that they were treading on thin ice and that many of the dealers, especially the ones located in TX, were selling them “bad paper” and that the whole experiment was likely to blow up in their faces – never mind that they were purchasing loans for people that they knew could not join the credit union as members. In my view, it was a ticking time bomb. Not surprisingly, losses became high in certain segments and at one point the entire TX market was abandoned. I was reassigned to the centralized lending group where a high level VP had set up a single group to decision the consumer and Visa loan applications of all of the branches. Branches are staffed with application takers/salespeople who are incentivized to “sell products” on their approved loans. Underwriters are expected to stare at a computer screen 8 hours per day and have their decisions questioned by gel haired, bedazzled jean wearing, Axe body spray sporting, weekend alcoholic Cardinals fans that are looking to score their bonuses so that they can afford some chrome wheels on their Honda or a Louis Vuitton handbag. The credit union higher ups like this arrangement because they don’t have to do the actual work of making sure their branches are staffed by intelligent, forward thinking individuals who can make reasonable judgments where loan applications are concerned. They can focus on staffing branches with personable salespeople. The fireworks ensue. I performed that job for a little more than 2 years as I closed in on the minimum retirement age. Hands down, it was the worst job that I ever had in nearly 30 years of banking/lending. I knew from the first year of my arrival at AECU that I was in the wrong place. I remember seeing a canary yellow convertible Prowler in the employee parking lot at the spots reserved for the credit unions’ higher ups and it was sporting the vanity plate “ROCSTAR” and thinking, “What a player – I need to get out of this place”. When PCU was absorbed by AECU, I remember thinking, “I hope that we are not treated like red-headed stepchildren” but that is what happened in my case. My own “manager” at the time resented my grandfathered pay level and vacation time accrual rate – in a conversation that I had with her, she condescendingly implied that I was not worth what I was being paid. My thought at the time was, “After watching this crew in action, I would not do this job for anything less than I am currently making”. I spoke with Human Resources about the possibility of moving to another department but I was told that in doing so, I would forfeit my salary level and would be paid at the level that the job dictated within their scale. It was a “Catch 22”. The Covid-19 Fun Bucks are running out and the whacky eviction moratoriums and foreclosure forbearance programs are all but over. Soon, consumers will have to start repaying their student loans and actually coughing up real money to keep a roof over their heads. Together Credit Union (I don’t think the new name plays well with many of their members judging from some of their reviews) will see how well a lot of their carefully underwritten loan decisions fare in the upcoming months and years. On a side note, if your politics are on the conservative or independent side of the fence, even moderately, keep your opinions to yourself if you work within TCU. You will not find many like minded people in some departments. I began my lending career as a collector at Manufacturers Hanover Consumer Services many years ago. We were sold by the bank to Credit Thrift and absorbed by that organization. As a grandfathered employee, I was better treated. I moved to credit union work after 5 years of working for consumer finance companies. PCU was different. During my employment there, TCU seemed more like a finance company than a credit union. The old finance companies (Norwest, Credit Thrift, American General) had a position called “CSR” – in most cases, these were the ladies in the office who would greet the customers, take applications, apply for perfected titles and administer the forced placed insurance premiums on borrowers who neglected to pay for their regular car insurance bills. Many of the people in positions of power at TCU seemed to me to be like the old CSR’s who went to university (on-line or brick and mortar) to get their degrees in one type or another of social or gender studies.

Thank God for Re-Runs

Very often, I find myself watching programs from pre 2000 and very much missing them. What passes as news and entertainment today is total crap by comparison.

Gross - just fucking gross

Back in the 50's and 60's, queers were routinely being beaten to a pulp by the cops. Take a look at the history of the Stonewall Bar. There was testimony from their spokesman who asked the powers in charge to put a stop to it. In his testimony, he stated that the gay community only wanted to be left in peace and not to be routinely beaten up and jailed over their sexuality. He stated that they were not looking for marital rights or paternal rights - just to be left alone. Sounds reasonable enough, right? That was back when film was in black and white. And look where we are today. In one interview, one queer from the documentary stated that after closing time, a bunch of queers would gather in empty tractor trailer boxes to have gay orgies because local laws prohibited gay sex and they were forced to hide. I thought to myself, "Opening up the doors to that tractor trailer and shining a flashlight inside would be the stuff of nightmares for a regular-guy-straight-white-cop". It's no wonder why they would get the Billy Stick out and beat the shit out of them. Gay Superman - what a crock of shit.

Why Does Whitey Move Out When His City Reaches a Critical Mass of the Precious POC?

Is racism the only driver in that decision to move? The answer is "no". Midnight Basketball costs green. Where does this green come from? Taxes. Whitey gets to pay for shit he does not use and may even think to be silly. Midnight Basketball is a euphemism for all of the “feel good freebies” that school districts (free brickfuss!!!), city and state governments feel that they need to provide and all of the increased services that police, fire and e.m.s. must provide to their wonderful citizens. Police in particular are expensive. The youth from these fine American homes have very little in the way of impulse control and contempt for any sort of authority figure, particularly white, male authority figures. Increased police patrols cost money. Recidivism is common. The only way to pay for all of this bullshit is to tax. Moving out of a major city (especially St. Louis City) in retirement was in my best interest financially when I retired. I’ve no desire to be an aging white male on a fixed income in a city that has lost control over its streets and that is steadily increasing taxes on an annual schedule. They will tell you that it is not very much and that “it’s for the kids” – same old song and dance. St. Louis City and St. Louis County are two different entities. The bullshit of the city is moving into the county at a steady clip. I’ve no desire to fund the bullshit known collectively as “Midnight Basketball”.

"No Filter" - pffffftttt....my ass

So the Stones are touring but won't include Brown Sugar in the set list as it might be insensitive or hurtful for today's audiences. I doubt Star Star is on the set list.

Fitch, S&P and Moody's are boinking the fat girl who insists upon being called "big boned" - delusional

"Even so, there are signs the rating firms are finding it increasingly difficult to overlook the US’s eye-popping debt levels. Fitch, which put the US’s credit rating on negative outlook in July, rang the alarm again this month when it said president Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will push the country even further away from a stabilized debt burden." It's all about yield - a rating downgrade results in lower bid prices for treasuries which in turn cranks up yields which in turn attracts the attention of yield starved investors. Right now, only the Federal Reserve and other foreign central banks are buying up the slop (with other people's money) to keep prices high and yields low. The US is more or less the girl you wouldn't fuck with your buddy's dick but the lowlifes of the neighborhood will pretty much fuck anything with a hole and a heartbeat so they're happy to oblige. I've watched Treasury yields over the past two decades and presently wonder who in their right mind would buy a 10 year treasury with the yield being so low. Incredible. Central Bankers view the fat girl through "beer goggles" - it doesn't hurt that the smoothies at the Fed can front-run their press releases and buy / sell stocks that they know will be directly affected by their decisions. I doubt that they invest their personal money in Treasuries - no proof, just a hunch. Scum.

Joe Biden's Media Whores

You can't help but love the whacky hi-jinks of today's crop of vapid media talent and "journalists" who cheerlead for the democrats in gushing and adoring terms. What bullshit.

The Safety Dance

"Say, we can act if we want to If we don't, nobody will And you can act real rude and totally removed And I can act like an imbecile" The rocket ride has been a lot of fun for a lot of suburbanites who commute to the cities to do their soul crushing jobs so that they can build up the precious 401k balance but I think the wealth effect is in jeopardy.

The Fed pays close attention to consumer confidence. At the moment, whitey knows that inflation is higher than the Fed claims and that while he's making more today, he's also required to pay more (for everything). In some cases, substantially more than he did 1 to 2 to 3 years ago. If his 401k becomes a 201k, bye bye wealth effect. Our economy is based upon real goods and services but it is also based upon a lot of smoke and mirrors - misguided trust, gullibility and more importantly, confidence.

Milquetoast - timid, meek, unassertive - lacking character or vigor.

That dumb phrase "Happy Wife, Happy Life" comes to mind. We seem to have a critical mass of milquetoast men in the country as we are increasingly cowed by "triggered", mentally unstable, no real talent assclowns.

Terra Field (a tranny working at Netflix) is the next logical progression in the "triggered movement". He/She takes issue with Dave Chappelle for stating the obvious. It's all bullshit. Chappelle's comedy bits are usually aimed at the absuridities of white people and particullary white men. I don't think much of Afro-American "culture" as a whole but I do think Chappelle is funny and I don't burst out into tears over his remarks directed toward "whitey". I'd certainly never call for his removal from any stage or network over a comedy bit. My advice to Terra or Ted or whatever his/her name is this - when or if Chappelle calls for your kind to be sent to "the showers" and then the crematorium, then you've got call for asking for his removal. Until then, shut your big yap. The root cause for all of this bullshit (in my opinion):

These bitches have truly come to believe in all of this entitled princess bullshit and a lot of milquetoast fathers and husbands "who go along to get along" are enablers. I personally don't bother with it anymore - the first whiff of this shit that I detect in a relationship and I'm in the wind and gone. I've learned over the years that you can't talk reason with them - they are like Jim Jones Kool-Aid drinking true believers. The best you can do is fuck 'em and forget 'em.

Batten Down Your Hatches

"So why would this year’s ROA, which is expected to be close to that of pre-pandemic 2019, fall next year to a level close to 2020, when credit unions bore heavy impacts from the pandemic? CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede said Tuesday that the main force behind the drop in ROA next year is the same force that played the main role in ROA falling in 2020 and rising in 2021: Loan loss provisions. That swing in loan loss provisions in turn reflects the freakishly high asset quality since the pandemic’s onset, a byproduct of government supports that provided much more support to household income than many economists expected." In part, all of the stimmies were a stealth bank bailout. The Fed knows how deeply in debt most great Americans are after years of encouraging them to borrow, borrow, borrow. Frankly, I love this - the Fed has finally managed to catch "the tit in the wringer". On the one hand, keep printing and distributing Fed Fun Bucks and inflation will continue the steady climb up and up and up. On the other hand, increase the overnight rate and remove the $120 billion in supports by tapering the Fed's purchases of very shitty investments and the stock market smoothies turn into crybabies and shit the bed. Congress, being the complete chickenshits that they are, will want to continue to borrow from whatever source they can find handy (China, Federal Reserve, Title Max, Cash Net USA, etc., etc.) so that they can keep their respective coalitions of money worshipping malcontent weirdos happy - Republican or Democrat makes no difference. Independents are the only true "American Party" - the rest of you are just big government bootlickers.

Carter's Appointee - Ford Relied Upon Buttons and Home Gardens

Asked by a reporter how much unemployment he was willing to accept, Mr. Volcker responded, “My basic philosophy is over time we have no choice but to deal with this inflationary situation.”

Mortgage Forbearance is Ending

Let's hope that the exit from mortgage forbearance goes a little more smoothly than the exit from Afghanistan. The experts warn that you should anticipate a few possible snags and setbacks post-forbearance, especially when it’s time to contact your loan servicer. “Borrowers should expect very long delays and may experience inconsistency in customer support representatives,” cautions Shapiro. “Loan servicing organizations are not all properly staffed for the expected volume of forbearances, and they can’t train support agents fast enough to meet their needs. Even if you can’t get through on the first few contact attempts, don’t give up. “Be patient, but be persistent. Mortgage servicers have struggled to keep up with calls during the COVID crisis, but many have made online options easy and added staffing,” says Boies. I am so very glad to be retired from the banking gig. What a self-created clusterfuck. Truly, our nation is run by imbeciles.

The Fed's Four Horsemen of Double Dealing

Kaplan, Rosengren, Clarida and Barkin. If investigated and found guilty of the ultimate insider trading gambit, they should do some jail time - never happen here in the U.S.

It went over $10 per package this week, but don't worry - only the rich will be taxed. :/