The 2 Year / 10 Year Treasury "Un-Inversion" Ride

Inversions are fun until they are not

It has been a great one plus year ride as the 2 year yield surpassed the 10 year yield but like all good things, they must come to an end.  

Historically, when the "un-inversion" does finally come about (and it always does), there is a period of dizziness and nausea.

We are on that final loop-the-loop at this point.  The 10 year yield will soon begin to rise past the yield of the 2 year yield.

A few people are talking about how the Fed will ride to the rescue and immediately begin to lower the overnight rate and start a new round of quantitative easing to stem the bleeding.  I'm not so sure about that.  It is a different world today than when Greenspan and Bernanke had the big chair at the Fed.  BRICS was not yet an issue back then.  The ratings agencies (Fitch, Moody's and S&P) would shit a brick.  Buh-bye world's reserve currency status almost overnight.

Turns Out Buying Votes Has Consequences - Go Figure

Washington Post: 

IRS halts processing claims for pandemic tax credit tied to fraud

The measure was meant to help hard-hit firms, but the agency warns it is ‘not operating as it was intended’

The "Employee Retention Credit" that came about as a result of the Covid Scamdemic turned out to be the underwater earthquake that caused a massive tsunami of fraudulent claims...wow, go fucking figure, huh?  The number of fraudulent claims has caused the IRS to suspend the program.  The only reason that there were "hard-hit firms" in the first place was because the goddamned government made them shut their doors....because of the flu season.....mmmmkaaay....

Mr. Haney devises a plan with Ebb to file a claim for an Employee Retention Credit

Americans like to believe that we live in a Norman Rockwell United States and our "elected leaders" like to write policy and law as if we are all the residents of Bedford Falls.  Personally, I think that they know better and deep down most Americans recognize that there is a "critical mass" of assclowns, frauds, scammers, etc.  If you doubt that, just go look at the price of a new car.

Interest Rate Risk

Interest Rate Risk: When interest rates rise, the market value of the debt securities tends to drop.  This makes it difficult for the bond investor to sell a T-bond without losing on the investment.

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, it was explained to me that the bond market was gargantuan compared to the other markets like equities.  People far and wide buy and sell the debt paper issued by their own government and the governments of other countries.  U.S. bonds are the King Kong of the bond jungle.  Gamblers line up to buy securities issued by foreign governments with the hope of trading them off to other gamblers for a profit.  The amount of money that trades hands is staggering.  The profits can be huge.  If you bought a high yielding 30 year security issued by a debtor nation deemed to be AAA rated and interest rates (market wide) dropped, you could sell that security to someone else for a large profit.  If you bought at the bottom and interest rates rose, well....not so much.

The last time the 2 year yield rose to a higher level than the 10 year yield was also a long time ago.  January 31, 2006.  That inversion lasted until March 21, 2007.  That inversion lasted a mere 13 months.  The current inversion is still in place but the gap is becoming more narrow by the day.  Up is down and down is up.  Central Bank intervention (buying long term bonds at nosebleed prices thus lowering the yield on the security) in what should be a free market (the market for the time value of money) has consequences.  Powell and company have a choice to make.  Either let markets do their thing and let losers lose and winners win.  Or, intervene again with Q.E. and rate fixing and completely destroy the value of the dollar and force the middle class / poor to take a wheel barrow of cash to Wal-Mart each time that they want to go buy groceries or fill up the Durango with petrol.

 

It is Not the Fall that Hurts. It is the Sudden Stop.

"The calliope crashed to the ground."

The yield inversion between the the 2 year treasury and the 10 year treasury is the flight.  The eventual and unavoidable unwinding of that inversion is the crash.  The longer that the inversion existed and the greater the width of the inversion usually dictates the severity of the recession that follows.  The current inversion between the 2 year treasury and the 10 year treasury began on April 1, 2022 when the yield on the 2 year was 2.44% and the yield on the 10 year treasury was 2.39%.  The gap widened considerably during the past 18 months but has now begun to taper off.  We are still inverted but the gap is not as wide.  As of yesterday, the inversion still exists with the 2 year at 4.98% and the 10 year at 4.27%.  As I have written before, treasuries are very boring.  Watching yields is like watching paint dry.  Make no mistake about it, bond yields will eventually correct and when they do, the shit will hit the fan.

Why You Should Never Listen to Broads and Never Ever Ever Ever Listen to Broads Who are Democrats

"Though she thanked police officers for their response, at the height of the George Floyd riots in June 2020, Sathanandan wrote Facebook posts supporting efforts to "dismantle" the police.

"We are going to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department. Say it with me. DISMANTLE. The. Minneapolis. Police. Department," she wrote, "As allies, what can we do right now? LISTEN and LEARN from our Black siblings. And then AMPLIFY this message right now, in this moment. MPD has systematically failed the Black Community c, they have failed ALL OF US. It's time to build a new infrastructure that works for ALL communities. If you are still disagreeing with that BASIC FACT, I'm not sure what to say to you." "

Read about her recent carjacking experience here.

Obviously, the answer to all of this mayhem is for the public to fund more Midnight Basketball programs for the restless youths.  What do we want?  Midnight Basketball!!  When do we want it?  Now!!!

Land of the Scam and the Home of the Fraudster

The I.R.S. should be expanded and more agents should be added.  Why?  Because this country is chock full of liars, cheats and scam artists.

“Pandemic relief fraud by CPS employees causes significant reputational harm to CPS and diminishes trust in the school district,” Fletcher’s office wrote in the report. “This is especially true when the perpetrators are employees responsible for managing public funds.”

Of those 14 employees, the OIG found many are in leadership or central office positions according to the report. In each substantiated CPS case, the person who applied for a PPP loan claimed to be self-employed.

In one case, a district full-time employee who makes more than $140,000 per year claimed in their loan application to have earned more than $100,000 in 2019 alone by working as a chef.

“When interviewed by the OIG, however, the employee admitted that the information provided on the loan application was false,” the report states.

Over paid Chicago public school (CPS) officials who are already ass raping tax payers are never happy.  Fraudulently obtaining PPP Covid 19 Scamdemic funding was just too tempting for these over paid ass clowns.

Why Chicago sucks in a nutshell.

A list of those who got bailouts.  Go check it out - you'll be surprised.  You might even find people you know.  How do you afford your rock-n-roll lifestyle?  In part it may be coming from the gub-mint!

Trump Returning To Office Would Be a Nightmare for a Few People

 

conir·sp·a·cy /kənˈspirəsē/ noun a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful

I don't think Trump's huge ego will allow him to publicly state that he got "had" by a large group of people (a.k.a. "the swamp") but deep down, he knows he got played.  Democrats and a large number of people from within his own party couldn't stand him.

For me watching from the sidelines, they threw out a guy who likes golfing and young, attractive, eastern European women and then replaced him with an obviously corrupt and rapidly deteriorating ass clown who sees no problem with showering with his own daughter (ewww, gross) and who has a drug addict son.

The "Covid 19 scamdemic" was the crowning touch of the "Never Trump" crowd's effort to remove him from office and I believe he got smooth talked into a lot of the bullshit that the government did in response to the virus that was supposed to "end humanity as we know it".  I will bet dollars to do-nuts that the Wu-Flu came out of a laboratory either on purpose or by way of a rather well timed accident.

The entanglement of lawsuits brought against Trump recently is perfectly timed and coordinated to keep him in a web of lawsuits during the upcoming election season.

I'm not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter but I don't like seeing a group of asshats conspiring against a person just because that person is brusque in their speech when stating the obvious.  I like my politicians to be more dull than Trump but that's just me.  Ganging up on a guy just because his statements make the precious, over paid and coddled swamp dwellers uncomfortable or butthurt is wrong and most news outlets are nothing but cheerleaders for anyone who is "anti-Trump".

If he returns to office, I am going to pop a big batch of popcorn and enjoy the shit show as he metes out retribution.  I'd like to see that smug little dickhead Faucci strung up from a lamp post by his testicles and beaten like a goddamned pinata.  

The "Scarf Lady" Birx has come out from under whatever rock she's been hiding beneath for the past few years to start hyperventilating over the dangers of the Covid 19 Election Variant that is supposed to ravage the Unwashed Masses in the upcoming year....during the upcoming election....

What is truly sad is the number of idiotic losers in this country who would gladly go back to Covid restrictions if it resulted in getting some more of those wonderful stimmy checks, PPP grants (not really a loan if it is forgiven), eviction and foreclosure moratoriums, student loan repayment moratoriums, enhanced unemployment benefits, etc., etc., etc.  

I'm going to state what is abundantly clear to anyone who pays attention - a very large number of the "Great Americans" who vote would gladly sell out their freedoms in a heartbeat if it meant that they could collect mailbox money from the "gub-mint", sit on their fat asses and eat Cheeto's while watching YouTube videos.

No Recessions Here (Yet)

What if the Fed threw a party and no one attended?  At the moment, the long awaited "crash" in real estate and equities has not materialized.  The "wealth effect" is alive and well as Great Americans shrug off higher interest rates, a looming end to the student loan repayment moratorium, the end of pandemic a.k.a. "scamdemic" aid, etc.

However, I have recently heard a number of people make the statement "I do not know where my money goes".  It appears on pay day and it just vaporizes in short order because of persistent and relentless inflation.  

My guess is that what has just occurred in the last two years will never be reversed.  You will never again see a trip to the grocery store cost the same or less than it did in 2019.

Watching Treasury yields is like watching paint dry.  Most people do not have the patience for it.  The unwinding of the yield curve inversion between the 2 year and the 10 year is "where the action is" - it's like watching box turtles race.  Prices are falling on the 10 year thus driving up the long term rate - a lot of adjustable rate debt is going to reprice higher starting in 2024.

Nikki Haley - Military Industrial Complex Cheerleader and a Real Young Bleeder

 

Nikki Haley - "It was not NATO expansion or Western warmongering that pushed Russia to invade."

Bullshit.  It was absolutely NATO expansion and she fucking knows it.  Over time, NATO has expanded to reach the 800 mile border that Finland shares with Russia.  Putin's no fucking fool - I absolutely guarantee you that should WWIII break out, no one with a last name of Haley is going to be anywhere near the front line "fighting for Democracy".

Just In Time For 2024's Political Season - The Covid 19 Election Variant

 

How convenient for the Biden/Obama/Fauci syndicate?

President Joe Biden on Friday told reporters that he's planning to request more money from Congress to develop a new coronavirus vaccine.  "Tentatively, it is recommended that — it will likely be recommended that everybody get it no matter whether they’ve gotten it before or not."

Could the Democrats (and, for that matter, their loyal voting block of useful idiots) be any fucking worse?  Just the absolute fucking worst.

I have come to a point in life where my tolerance for people like El Presidente' Joseph Robinette Biden and Magical African Obama and Garden Gnome Fauci and Prune Pussy Pelosi is at zero.  My tolerance for those morons who support this type of governance is at zero.  

I deliberately separate myself from people who are too fucking stupid to see through the bullshit - I've literally cut off decades long friendships with people who are so fucking brain dead that they actually believe that the crap that is put forth by the current leadership of the Democrat Party is the best way forward for the country that I am forced to share with them.  RFK Jr. talks like the last sane fucking member of his party.

Powell's Conundrum - A Consumer That Just Won't Quit

"The number of Americans rolling credit card debt from month to month is now higher than the number of people paying their bills in full for the first time ever.

Americans are buried under more than $1 trillion in credit card debt. Credit card balances increased by $45 billion between April and June alone. Meanwhile, credit card interest rates have climbed to 20.6%."

More people are carrying a balance than are paying off in full each month. A first.

Great Americans today are not the Great Americans of 30 or 40 years ago.  The mindset of Great Americans today is not the same as it was decades ago.  If it were the same, they would have already slowed down on their spending in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates.

Today's Americans are in fact a special kind of stupid compared to their grandparents.  You might even go so far as to say brain dead by comparison.

But, this is a fat-assed debt zombie consumer creation built by the government and large banks.  If you doubt that, just read a book titled "Maxed Out" about how the government partnered with large banks to offer the first credit cards to the well heeled back in the 1960's in an effort to make credit easily available which would then "juice the economy".

Failure is Quickly Politicized

Janet Yellen on the Fitch rating:

Fitch’s decision is puzzling in light of the economic strength we see in the United States. I strongly disagree with Fitch’s decision, and I believe it is entirely unwarranted. Its flawed assessment is based on outdated data and fails to reflect improvements across a range of indicators, including those related to governance, that we’ve seen over the past 2½ years.

Pearls of wisdom from Democrat Bullshit Artist Kevin Munoz:

This Trump downgrade is a direct result of an extreme MAGA Republican agenda defined by chaos, callousness and recklessness that Americans continue to reject. Donald Trump oversaw the loss of millions of American jobs, and ballooned the deficit with the disastrous tax cuts for the wealthy and big corporations.

In Fitch's own words:

There has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025.

Now for a few words from your Old Uncle Kenny:

Everyone of you motherfuckers is responsible for this clusterfuck dating back to that moron George Bush.  

• 20 fucking years of pointless warfare, running around the globe looking for the next bullshit conflict to stick our noses into
• welfare programs that do nothing but create more ass clowns that sit around doing nothing but taking up space and waiting for the next bullshit gub'mint check to arrive in their mailboxes
• tax credits and special deals for industries that would not have a Chinaman's chance in Hell of surviving on their own
• corruption out the ass for decades including large scale bullshit loan programs that are backed by the government that value quantity of loans over quality of loans when measuring success (can you fog a mirror? congratulations Mr. Applicant, you qualify for our loser debtor loan program, sign right here...welcome to the very large pool of other losers who are now beholden to their own fucking government, now we can influence your vote just by dangling out some possibility that your debts might be one day forgiven...)
• personality worship that transforms some ass clown Chicago "community organizer" into the "Magical African" capable of doing no wrong
• the same personality worship then subsequently directed toward a guy from Queens, NY who sold real estate, steaks, worthless "university degrees", a stupid television program and anything else he thought he could turn a buck on and who, in large part, turned out to not be who he purported to be when running as a candidate for El Presidente'
• and finally, a Covid Scamdemic that served as an excuse to grossly inflate the money supply with little to no regard for the consequences of doing so...  

What the fuck did you expect to happen??!!  

The bill is just now starting to come due and how do you suppose Uncle Sam is going to pay for it?  He is going to say "Well, we all have to pull together as 'Great Americans' and pay our 'fair share' and there are going to be some tax increases".  If you have planned for this moment to arrive and have your ducks in a row, Bully for You.  If not, you are going to be feeling Uncle Sam up your ass for the coming years while he makes installments on all of this debt that will have higher and higher interest rates attached to it.

It Begins

One of the ratings agencies finally woke up.

Fitch gives long term U.S. debt a well deserved (and overdue) downgrade.  Moody's and Standard and Poors might grow a pair and follow Fitch's lead.  The last time a ratings agency (S&P in 2011) dinged the US credit rating, the Magical African Obama threw a temper tantrum and they quickly restored the AAA rating.

Just a tiny little trim off of Uncle Sam's credit score.  Who would have thought that taking on trillions more in debt would have some consequences?

(higher rates + higher standards = fewer buyers) / (full car lots + manufacturer's discounts) = LOWER ASKING PRICES

"Perhaps no one has felt the pain more than car buyers. It’s not just that sticker prices are way up. Or that lenders have tightened credit standards. On top of all that, steadily higher auto loan rates have elbowed many would-be buyers out of the market."  -A.P.

Powell's Heap Um Big Pow Wow

 It's that time again...big Summer meeting at Chief's Wigwam

I laddered out a bunch of certificates last year as rates came off of the floor (finally) and they are set to start maturing and earning about twice what they did last year starting in August.  Good times.  He who does not understand compounding interest pays it.  He who understands compounding interest collects it.

Inflation is not abating in any meaningful way.  There is more talk around the globe about the legitimacy of the dollar's world reserve currency status.  Foreigners are questioning whether or not our economy and our currency still deserves to be the end all and be all to the rest of humanity.

One sign that inflation will be cooling soon comes from a place many will not understand.  Denial rates for credit have spiked.  No more juice for "Great Americans" who buy shit on payments.

"Over the 12 months ending in June, 21.8% of people who applied for credit were rejected, according to data released this week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In other words, more than 1 in 5 people who submitted an application for a credit card, mortgage, auto loan or another type of credit were turned down."

The Cure for High Prices is High Prices

 

"California cities where the median rental price decreased

• Los Angeles metro by 2.6%,
• San Bernardino metro by 5.9%,
• Sacramento metro by 3.5%
• San Diego metro by .6%
• San Francisco metro by 4%

Overall, in the western metro area of the country, rent was 3% lower than where it was last year."

California Rental News 

Where the Western coastal cities and the North East lead, the rest of the country generally follows shortly thereafter.  

"Asking rental price" is the proverbial fly in the ointment where it comes to grossly inflated "asking sale price" for real estate.  For many people, if renting makes more financial sense than owning, they will rent a home instead of buying a home.

All Signs Point To a Long and Slow Death

Sometimes, the only way to win at a game is to not play.  Active participants in today's housing market game will live to regret their actions.

Read about housing starts at Zero Hedge here.

Potential sellers find themselves shackled with the "golden handcuffs" of a 3% mortgage that will be replaced with a mortgage at 7% if they sell and move.

The pool of potential buyers will dry up as the summer buying season ends and the industry will be scraping the bottom of the barrel to come up with buyers.  The only sellers who will win right now are those who purchased their homes a long time ago and who have no debt or very little debt.

Buyers will be the patsies.  Best quote/comment from the Zero Hedge article comes from someone who says they are a mortgage underwriter:

"I'm a mortgage underwriter.  Its just the opposite.  Guidelines are easing up to get lesser qualified borrowers in the door sadly.  The FHA, VA and USDA loans are basically subprime at this point.  With down payment assistance programs, people with no money down can buy a house with so so credit or basically no credit as long as they meet a certain credit score."

Sound familiar?  Speaking of subprime home buyers, Angelo Mozilo (founder of Countrywide Mortgage) passed away this week.

The "Original Orange Man" - Godspeed Angelo

Just Believe

 

Contrary to our desires, we can't really "believe" Santa Claus into existence.

Apple's current stock price to earnings is presently sitting at 32.35.  The company's implied value is no more believable than the legends of Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy.  Will that P/E go higher?  Maybe.  The nation is full of people desperate to believe in Apple, in something, in anything...

How has the stock market maintained "the levitation trick" over the past several months?

Read about what realists "believe" over at The Daily Reckoning - here's a hint/snippet from the article:

"Taken in a broader context, over 100% of all the gains this year in the S&P index have been driven by seven stocks. Three of those seven stocks account for 68% of the S&P’s entire yearly gains."

I recall first seeing one of these ridiculous signs in the home of a former girlfriend some 20 odd years ago.

Costco Possibly Quitting Queer Beer

 

The asterisk in the upper right corner normally indicates that Costco will no longer stock the item after existing items are sold.  Get woke and go broke.  

Not so long ago (2020), Beyond Meat company stock traded at a price of nearly $200 per share.  It is now trading at under $18.  It's price to earnings ratio (P/E) remains in the negative.  That means that it has still not turned a profit as a company and is a purely speculative stock.  

It is a Hoola Hoop or a Pet Rock.  A fad.  A trendy and shiny item that your teenage daughter thinks is cool.

Anheuser Busch searched high and low and found a woke, female, white millennial ass hat with an ivy league degree under her belt and they made her the Veep of one of their more successful products.  The horse faced girl on the left (go figure) is her.  40 years of being on top of the light beer heap and they threw it all away.  

And for what?  Virtue signaling inclusive bullshit.  No different than white suburban kids sending in their lunch money and car wash earnings to the local BLM chapter so that Patrice Cullors could go out and buy a multi-million dollar mansion in a predominately white neighborhood in southern California.  Whitey America that resides in the burbs has some of the most stupid fucking offspring in the country.  Truly dumb.

Real women of genius

Democrat Party - A Coalition of Morons, Hustlers, Gullible Young People and the "Perpetually Aggrieved"

"Grace Meng (D-NY) announced today that she reintroduced her legislation that would lower the voting age in the United States to 16-years-old. The Congresswoman's measure seeks to replace the 26th amendment of the U.S. Constitution with a new amendment that would allow 16- and 17-year-olds the right to vote."

Go figure that this asinine idea came from a woman with a "D" behind her name.

The image is for those of you astute enough to put two plus two together and consistently come up with a sum of four.

Just think of some of the complete morons you went to high school with and wonder if you would want them expressing their opinions as "Great Americans" on the direction of the country.  I remember myself as a teenager and would have had no business what so ever casting a vote.

Artificial Intelligence - Collection and Repossession Assistant

When your deadbeat tenant or debtor is having trouble remembering when the payment is due:

Harley-Davidson's credit division has seen a noticeable increase in delinquent contracts secured with Hogs but there is a serious shortage of repossession agents who are willing to repo motorcycles for the small fee that H.D. credit pays for bringing in motorcycles that secured delinquent loans.  

Assistance from some artificial intelligence device might remind "Mr. Ride to Live and Live to Ride Biker Dude" that once a month he is your bitch and to cough up the payment or else.

Perception when making the purchase: Easy Rider.  

Reality: Don't miss a payment or the Hog gets repo'd and you have shitty credit.

Ford has not implemented its patented invention (described below) but I suspect it will be coming soon.  To my thinking, they could make a few bucks by licensing their invention to other manufacturers.

"And instead of flying us to work, collapsing into briefcases (or backpacks), and hanging under desks while we work, our cars can now refuse to let us in.

Wait. What?!

Yup. A Ford repossession patent would make it so autonomous and semi-autonomous cars could disable air-conditioning or even drive themselves to the repo lot if they think you’re ignoring delinquency notices."

France's "Saint George Floyd Moment"

Some kid from Africa who migrated to France tried pulling away from a legitimate traffic stop and the cop waxed him right on the spot.  Overkill?  Probably.  The price paid in kind by the French is to have whole sections of cities burned to the ground, looting, out of control chaos, etc.  The mainstream news sources are not talking a whole lot about it but you can read all about it right here.

Why are so many Africans in France in the first place?  Because the French are too lazy to build their own buildings and do the manual labor needed to keep their country going.  Too busy drinking and eating and collecting very generous social welfare benefits that are financed by the working class which is increasingly made up of migrating Africans with far different ideas about social norms than the native French.  Sound familiar yet?  Any patterns forming for you yet, Skippy?

They had their chances to avoid all this bullshit when Le Pen family members were running for office (both the father and the daughter) but they blew it.

I'm not a white supremacist (my shit stinks just like the next man or woman) but I might accurately be called a white separatist.  Associate with those who are like you and "pick your own fucking cotton" and you'll live a life that has a lot less drama and bullshit.  All that "We Are The World, kumbaya my Lord" bullshit is just that - bullshit.

High Time for the 3 Major Ratings Agencies to do Their Jobs

 

Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch need to start calling a spade a spade

Both political parties are full of shit where the debt ceiling is concerned and they both know it.  Higher rates (much higher) and lower ratings from the Big 3 Agencies on US issued debt is the ONLY cure for purging out the rot in the system.  It can't come fast enough for your Old Uncle Kenny.  Fuck 'em all and let God sort 'em out.

America's Perpetually Imperfect Democracy

 

When the truth is found to be lies

And all the joy within you dies

Our system of government is very much reliant upon "great American Voters" receiving an unbiased and balanced diet of news regarding politics.  Now more than ever, our system of government needs the truth about all candidates running in elections and it needs the news in the most "dumbed down" terms given the intellect of the average "Great American Voter".

Let's face it - most of the unwashed masses who vote within the country are a far cry from what the founders originally designated as eligible voters.  

People who have made an absolute train wreck out of their own personal lives (and those unfortunate enough to have deep ties to them) have the God given right as a "Great American" to offer their vote/opinion on what leader should govern over the total population of the country.  It is akin to allowing a chimpanzee to perform brain surgery just because the chimpanzee can hold a scalpel.

Media outlets are having an increasingly hard time holding back the Joe and Hunter Biden Shit Show News Flow.  The stories have been floating around out there for years - you had to look hard to find them but they did exist for anyone who bothered to look.  Most "Great American Voters" don't bother to look.  Some of the more clueless and hopeless among them will deny reality.  They go in the direction they are told to go.  Morons.  

And, for those who were just too fucking stupid to see that Joe Biden and his family were nothing more than common hucksters up for sale to the highest foreign bidder dating back a decade or more...

Well, if you find yourself just aching to express your fucking high and mighty opinion during an election (any election - from Presidential elections down to local elections for dog catcher), look at your situation in life and your past choices and ask yourself if you are truly smart enough and well informed enough to participate.  Just because a gorilla can hold a pistol in its hand is not a good excuse to give it a loaded and cocked .357 magnum and just hope for the best possible outcome.

Your Creditor Called Today

 

“The creditors are getting over COVID, and they’re not cutting any more slack,” says Urich.

Even the perpetual housing cheerleaders at Realtor.com are "sounding the alarm bell".   Too funny.

Their take on foreclosure news here.

Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

 

I am of the opinion that the consumer is living on borrowed time

On a retail level, inventory snags have been worked out and deliveries arrive more or less on time.  Large ticket items gather dust as they await a buyer.  Manufacturers are offering discounts - something that disappeared during all of the Covid 19 nonsense and the reckless distribution of funds from the pinheads at the Federal level.  Small ticket items and necessities continue to be purchased.  

Retail employers are becoming more and more choosy about who they assign hours and managers have been placed upon an "hours diet" by the home office for their store employees.

The job reports are somewhat misleading.  True, there are A LOT OF JOBS out there but not all jobs are created equal.  If you lose a cushy tech job paying big bucks and the only job you can obtain in your area is a hospitality or retail position in its place, your lifestyle will need to adjust.  Some states are experiencing an uptick in first time unemployment claims.  Not all of the recently unemployed are going to rush out and accept the first offer thrown at them - more often than not they are going to take a little siesta from working in the hopes that they will be able to replace their old salary with a new salary that is equal to or greater than what they lost.  It may become a game of musical chairs.

Some economists are arguing that "Great Americans" have a long way to go before becoming "maxed out" on consumer credit.  Their collective credit limit far exceeds their collective current balance.  A simpleton's point of view if you ask me - many truly credit worthy people will NEVER charge as much as their Visa or Mastercard allows because IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT.  

As the Fed continues to tighten (no more Quantitative Easing) and as the student loan repayment moratorium finally ends, we will see just how much gas the American Consumer has left in the tank.

Personally, I see the consumer of large ticket items every time I go to work and I pay attention to their patterns and their moods.  Not all but many of them are sweating every dime they have to shell out.

See the Statistica chart and article here

"And lastly, as opposed to their government, Americans are far from reaching their debt ceiling, at least as far as credit cards are concerned. With a total credit card balance of $986 billion and a total limit of $4.5 trillion, U.S. consumer actually have $3.5 trillion in untapped available credit on their cards."

It's Powell and Company's Time of the Month

 

Don't look now but it is once again time for the FOMC to hold heap 'um big Pow Wow to discuss whether or not they should adjust their overnight interest rate or not.

Recently, the stock market rejoiced over the fact that a pound of bananas and a can of chicken noodle soup (generic or store brand) was no longer racing toward a new record high price.  This caused the stock market smoothies to believe (or at least publicly promote the idea) that the Fed will pause in their interest rate hikes and maybe, just maybe, start cutting rates again.  This speculation coupled with FOMO (fear of missing out) has caught the attention of your average Lower Slobovian retail investor.  Personally, I believe that the smoothies are playing the retail slobs.  Never forget the leaked e-mail in which Goldman Sachs referred to their customers as "Muppets".  Front running the trades of your clients is not beyond them.

Never mind the still nosebleed level asking prices of real estate, a used car, a new lawn mower, etc.  It's all good.

If you question the wisdom of this post, meander on over to your local "Big Tits and Hair Real Estate Agency" website and check out the asking prices on listings from areas that you are familiar with - ask yourself as you peruse the postings if the asking prices seem realistic.  Next, take a look at what is available at "Honest Kyle's Used Auto Emporium" and see if the gel haired ass clown has anything available that the average working person could afford without the use of a dodgy loan contract.

But no worries Fed - that pound of bananas is at 55 cents per pound and that's some progress, right??

Boggles the Mind

 

"Younger voters should be a source of electoral strength for Democrats for some years to come."

From Brookings

The "leadership" that is elected in the United States reflects the "evolution" of politics and demographics in the country.  Democrats have successfully created a coalition of the overly emotional, the illiterate, the liberal, the weird and the common thief.  There is a large wave of people that happens to include nearly an entire generation that falls into the "Free Shit Army".  

It has to be stupidest voting block ever assembled.  

The precious people of color who spit out kid after kid after kid after kid who believe "it takes a village" to raise their bastard offspring.  

The ridiculous but college educated suburban white woman who is oh so offended by the "grab 'em by the pussy if you have enough cash Donald Trump hijinks" (a statement that is offensive to the ears but entirely true - some of the gross shit that women do for money is evidence of the truth behind Trump's tape recorded statement).  This is also the "voter" who would very much love to see her enormous pile of student debt vaporized by executive order.  If you could make all that "just go away" reader, she will very likely allow you the privilege of grabbing her by the pussy.

The weirdo ass clown who insists that you celebrate his or her sexual pet peeve or peccadillo during the entire "pride" month of June.  Sorry, but dressing as a man when you are clearly a woman, one man taking another man's dick up the shit chute, stuffing live hamsters up your ass, etc. is not a cause for pride.  Go back to the shadows where you belong.

This is how clowns from the Democrat party get elected and then keep getting re-elected no matter how bat shit crazy their politics happen to be when viewed by realistic and sane people.  These are their people.

The predictable knee jerk and opposite response of those who voted for Donald Trump within the Republican party is really just a natural reflex of those people who see what was once the United States of their youth slipping away.  That generation is on the decline and the generation that voted Obama into office (twice) is on the increase.

I was recently informed that a long estranged son had recently passed away at the age of 37.  From what I gathered, he was very much an Obama fan, liberal in his leanings to a fault, Democrat in his voting pattern, and very much opposed to the "evil conservative patriarchy".  So, what happened?  From what I've been told he died of a heart attack in China of all places where he had married a Chinese woman.  From what I remember of him, he was on all accounts healthy.  

I was stricken by the irony of it all.  Here we have a young white boy from the US of A who was opposed to anyone who even vaguely resembled Donald Trump in his politics and who very likely got the "clot shot" Covid-19 vaccinations and the necessary "boosters" to enter the wonderful Communist country of China.  And China is where he subsequently died of heart failure - something that seems to be an increasingly common affliction among young men who either voluntarily or by result of coercion take the Wu-Flu "vaccination".

The other irony is that his mother (and my ex-wife) taught CPR classes for many, many years.  There is no telling how many "pump and blow" sessions this woman held over the course of three decades.  Thousands probably.  I don't know how many other people have been saved as a result of her teachings but at the end of the day, it did not save her own son.  

Your old Uncle Kenny remains unapologetically un-vaccinated.  The Covid 19 "vaccinations" and "boosters" that were promoted by both Democrats and Republicans alike (remember Donald Trump's "Operation Warp Speed" project) was a total load of bullshit and a lot of gullible people went along for the ride.  My bullshit detector was flashing red and I correctly followed my instincts instead of following Dr. Faucci's science.