Thursday, October 5, 2023

The 2 Year / 10 Year Treasury "Un-Inversion" Ride

Inversions are fun until they are not

It has been a great one plus year ride as the 2 year yield surpassed the 10 year yield but like all good things, they must come to an end.  

Historically, when the "un-inversion" does finally come about (and it always does), there is a period of dizziness and nausea.

We are on that final loop-the-loop at this point.  The 10 year yield will soon begin to rise past the yield of the 2 year yield.

A few people are talking about how the Fed will ride to the rescue and immediately begin to lower the overnight rate and start a new round of quantitative easing to stem the bleeding.  I'm not so sure about that.  It is a different world today than when Greenspan and Bernanke had the big chair at the Fed.  BRICS was not yet an issue back then.  The ratings agencies (Fitch, Moody's and S&P) would shit a brick.  Buh-bye world's reserve currency status almost overnight.