Among the Stupid, Saint Louis is a Special Kind of Stupid

I heard and read the same sort of drivel from "real estate professionals" in the area during the 2007 - 2008 real estate bust.  This is a quote from one of the locals written in May of 2021 regarding the potential for a real estate bubble bust in St. Louis:

• It’s an “honest” market (chart 5) – One problem that helped lead to the housing bubble before was the advent of “subprime” loans as well clever things like “no doc” loans, “stated income” loans and the like.  As the chart shows, subprime loans went from almost non-existence in 1999 to nearly a trillion dollar market in 2007 and Alt-A loans (better than subprime but still pretty risky mortgages) did the same.  The availability of financing to people that wouldn’t have qualified under normal, more sound guidelines led to artificially inflated prices, an artificially high rate of sales and unfortunately, a lot of loan fraud.  As the chart shows, now these types of loans are at greatly reduced levels and at a volume that is consistent with a historic norm.  The second chart shows that the loan volume to Government Sponsored Enterprise (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginna Mae) which are traditional conventional mortgages, has doubled since 2006.  This means that the current market is being driven largely by well-qualified purchasers using traditional mortgage products making the resulting home prices a much more accurate reflection of the true market.

We had fraud here just like everywhere else in the US during the last real estate bubble.  Realtors and "mortgage professionals" in the area were proclaiming that bubbles did not occur in St. Louis because we were the "nation's heartland".  My response to that statement was, "Bullshit.  This place has more stupid people with access to artificially cheap credit than you can shake a stick at."

Fast forward to September, 2022 real estate news:

"Average St. Louis home prices are still up amid low inventory, but more sellers are dropping list prices as sales volume declines, according to real estate groups. That comes as mortgage rates continue to increase, to 5.66%, pressuring homebuyers still in the market.

Pending and closed sales fell by double-digit percentages in July compared with the same month last year, according to data from the St. Louis Realtors, an industry association for agents in St. Louis County and the city of St. Louis. Closed sales fell 23.6% year over year, and pending sales declined by 17.4%."

This time, the Federal Reserve is not prepared to ride to the rescue so that it can prop up "values" and keep mortgage rates artificially cheap.  Watching "the Heartland" St. Louis get it stuck up its ass is going to be a lot of fun.  I'll be honest - I got so fucking sick of watching truly stupid people benefit from the Fed's largesse during the past two decades that I will very much enjoy watching them in an environment where it is sink or swim.  I think that what really sickened me was the attitude.  Instead of admitting that they were the beneficiaries of an over protective Federal Reserve (starting with the Greenspan / Bernanke Fed), they believe that they truly have "superpowers".

After two decades of flooding the financial system with dollars pulled from the asses of various Fed Chairpersons, the Federal Reserve has finally crossed the Rubicon.  It can no longer rob savers (like myself) and slowly but surely erode the dollar's buying power via inflation without having the USA go full-retard Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe National Bank.  The Fed finally "jumped the fucking shark" ala Fonzi and went a bridge too far.  Fuck you Federal Reserve and all of the pinheads running their shit show.  You made this clusterfuck, now you get to clean it up and deal with the ramifications resulting from so many, many poor decisions over the past two decades (plus).  Jacking up the overnight rate by a 25 - 75 basis points is going to prolong the pain but it will allow savers to make a few bucks on the slow, steady march up.  If they were really serious about squashing the inflation monster that they set loose, they know that they would have to allow the overnight rate to almost immediately go to 5 or 6 percent.  They (and the country generally) are too pussy to do it.

A very big portion of the USA falls into two groups.  The first group is the well connected, entitled, ever wanting, malcontent, overfed, big car, big house, big private jet, big hair, big dick, superficial bunch of ass clowns that just can't get enough and will very happily climb over your dead body to get their "fair share".  Sociopathic liars, cheats and frauds with differing levels of success.  The trait that they all share is this - no matter what they have managed to claw out for themselves, it is never enough.  What do they want?  More.  When do they want it? Right fucking now.

The other group is part of the grossly overweight, great USA "citizenry" who lines up at the food bank driving a new SUV with 8 kids in the back seat (all wearing their stupid Covid-19 masks) and who is ready to burn down a fucking Quik Trip to promote social justice and points to "systemic racism" as the root cause of all of his or her personal problems and failings.  An observation from someone I once knew who had travelled throughout most of the globe during his lifetime:  "The USA has the fattest poor people in the world".

Saint Louis is like many large metro areas in the country.  It has large populations that fall into both groups.  Both groups have unjustly benefited greatly from the moronic policies pushed by the Federal Reserve and a completely corrupt political class that occupies both sides of Congress.  Kenny Bing fucking out.

You Can't Go On, Thinking Nothing's Wrong

"And so it comes as no surprise from Bloomberg that more US consumers are saddled with credit card debt for longer periods of time. According to a survey by CreditCards.com released on Monday, 60% of credit card debtors have been holding this type of debt for at least a year, up 50% from a year ago, while those holding debt for over two years is up 40%, from 32%, according to the online credit card marketplace."

"Bankruptcy filings in August 2022 across all chapters totaled 35,355, a 10 percent increase from the August 2021 total of 32,276, according to new research released today from Epiq's Bankruptcy Analytics platform.

Overall commercial filings increased 6 percent in August 2022, as the 1,861 filings were up over the 1,753 commercial filings registered in August 2021. Individual filings increased 10 percent totaling 33,494 in August 2022 compared to the 30,523 filed in August of 2021.

Total filings, both commercial and individual, show a 15 percent increase month-over-month compared to the July 2021 total of 30,854 filings. August’s commercial filings represent a 16 percent increase compared to July’s commercial filing total of 1,607, while August’s individual filings represent a 15 percent increase compared to July’s individual filing total of 29,247."

When I read news like this, the Car's song "Drive" always comes to mind.  People are unwisely using credit to fund a lifestyle that they never could really afford.  And for what?  To what end?  For what purpose?  They've done it before and they will do it again no matter what history says or what the inevitable outcome may be.  The outcome is always bankruptcy.  It is never "different this time" as they always falsely believe.

Meat Beaters

Shoppers lament:  "All meat. I’ve always had the want to be a vegetarian but never got started because I have a husband who eats meat. Then he got deployed and prices became high. I just can’t justify meat anymore in my grocery budget."

When the going gets tough, the tough get fapping.

It's All "Transitory" in the End

 

Buzzfeed Headline: "The Price Has Gone Up But The Quality Has Gone Down": Grocery Shoppers Are Sharing The Specific Items They've Had To Stop Buying Due To Inflation

Little Kid Carrying the Football Meets Lawrence Taylor

Be sure to watch Arbitrage Andy's Tweet until the end.

Market Meets CPI Report

                    the Democrats might see the same kind of blind side hit at the upcoming mid-term election

Perception Meets Reality

 The CPI report predictably pissed on the stock market's September parade yesterday.  Remember how inflation was supposed to be "transitory" according to the Federal Reserve's enlightened board of governors?  Remember that - "transitory".

A lot of retail investors are getting absolutely killed in this market.  I know a few.  When I speak to them, they are not pleased with the recent losses that they have experienced but they remain absolutely convinced that the Federal Reserve will once again ride to the rescue and flood the markets with zero percent credit.  They don't seem to realize that they are living in a "sea change environment".  They know only the world in which the dollar was the unquestioned reserve currency and that fact was absolute.  The Fed is fighting against inflation but, more importantly, it is also fighting back very credible threats to the dollar's reserve currency status.  It is a multi-front war and the Fed has only so much ammunition.

Numerous IRS Audits Are in the Pipeline

Not in your evening news

"In August, President Biden signed two bills into law that give the Department of Justice and other federal agencies more time to investigate and prosecute Paycheck Protection Program (“PPP”) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (“EIDL”) cases. H.R. 7352, the “PPP and Bank Fraud Enforcement Harmonization Act of 2022” and H.R. 7334, the “COVID-19 EIDL Fraud Statute of Limitations Act of 2022” extend the statute of limitations for fraud charges involving PPP and EIDL fraud to ten years. Previously, the statute of limitations for these offenses was limited to five years, except in the case of federal bank fraud where the statute of limitations is also ten years. Both bills passed with bipartisan support from Congress and clearly signal that pandemic relief fraud prosecutions and enforcement remain a top priority for the federal government."

Large scale PPP loan fraud was rampant.  This reminds me of the old Eric Holder "Fast and Furious" operation.  A lot of people are going to get caught up in the government's wide dragnet - rightfully so.  The people who cheat the benefits systems are a drag on regular, honest people who pay into the system.  

It bothers me not one bit that those who cheated the government program will now be in bed with Uncle Sam and his newly minted army of IRS auditors and investigators for a long, long time to come.

Uncle Sam is sharpening up his pencil and is ready to love you long time!!!

The Pinheads At The New York Fed

 From the report:  "While overall credit profiles thus far remain resilient, the recent uptick in delinquencies in some households suggests that many communities or individuals are experiencing the economy differently. We are seeing a hint of the return of the delinquency and hardship patterns we saw prior to the pandemic. Despite that, many are experiencing a strong economy and robust consumer demand, but the impacts of inflation are apparent in high volumes of borrowing. We will monitor these areas going forward for evidence of growing stress due to inflation and higher borrowing costs."

                                               you're not broke - you're just experiencing the economy differently

"Experiencing the economy differently"...  you just have to laugh.  Yeah, I know that there are plenty of jobs out there for anyone who wants to work and that there is an abundance of cheap credit out there for anyone who wants to borrow but "experiencing the economy differently"???  Seriously?? Do any of these overpaid pinheads have any clue on how the majority of people living in this country actually go about their everyday lives??

These overpaid academics who pledge to "monitor these areas going forward for evidence of growing stress" are fucking laughable.  These are the types of people we used to describe in Mississippi as being "educated beyond their wisdom".  Just fucking incredible.

What I have to sometimes wonder is whether they are that fucking stupid or if they are that fucking evil because the "growing stress due to inflation and higher borrowing costs" is a direct result of their own fucking policies.  Far too often, the Fed kowtows to short sighted politicians and the constituents of those short sighted politicians.

The Inevitable Bust is a Few Quarters Away

 

New York Fed Second Quarter:

Household Debt Rises to $16.15 Trillion Amid Growth in Housing and Non-Housing Balances

Total household debt rose $312 billion, or 2 percent, in the second quarter of 2022 to reach $16.15 trillion, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—climbed $207 billion and stood at $11.39 trillion as of June 30. Credit card balances saw their largest year-over-year percentage increase in more than twenty years, while aggregate limits on cards marked their largest increase in over ten years.  Transitions into delinquency ticked up but remained very low compared to historical levels.

Greta's Mom Has Got It Goin' On

 

We are officially taking our Energy Policy marching orders from the 18 year old daughter of artists (one an actor/producer and the other a singer) who has Asperger's Syndrome.  The parents, who are very well off by most people's standards, are from that bastion of conservatism, Sweden.  Yes, the same country that thought taking in gigantic numbers of migrant Muslims from Africa would work out swimmingly (it hasn't).

She's not a spring chicken anymore but still pretty doable...

Stacy's mom has got it goin' on
Stacy's mom has got it goin' on
Stacy's mom has got it goin' on
Stacy's mom has got it goin' on

Stacy, can I come over after school?
(After school)
We can hang around by the pool
(Hang by the pool)
Did your mom get back from her business trip?
(Business trip)
Is she there, or is she trying to give me the slip?
(Give me the slip)

Subprime Then and Now

 

I hate to piss on FHA's parade but a 580 credit score is shit.  Smooth talking ass clowns like Atwater and Clinton be damned.  FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been the dumping ground for total shit mortgages made to people who have little to no financial discipline.  They are going to default and in record numbers this time.  Housing cheerleaders have been saying that this real estate bust will not be as severe as the bust in 2008 - 2009.  I think that it will be worse.  The underwriting for those mortgages has been total shit and standards were lowered so that politicians could pander to the type of "citizen" that votes for them - translation, life's losers.  These are people who you would not lend $20 to much less hundreds of thousands of dollars spread out over many decades.  You can literally have a shitty 580 credit score and put down 3.5% on an overpriced shack in a craptastic city and get fixed rate funding for the difference.  This market is going to slowly go "tits up" in the next several months.  The Fed is fucked and it knows it - they bought sooooo much mortgage backed paper at nosebleed prices funding all of these "Great American Citizens".  LMFAO.

Lighten Up Robinette

 

As this image of Biden goes around the internet, I can't help but think "Fuck you and the horse you rode into town on".  This guy's only fucking job in life has been as a politician.  He tries to project an image of power and it just falls flat.  As you watch him speak and pump his fists, just remind yourself that his middle name is "Robinette"...  Jeeze Louise....  I'd pay good money to see old Biden and Putin in a cage match.  Two men enter, one man leaves... you can just guess who is getting his ass kicked in that scenario.

Virtue Signaling Mayor of a Northern Sanctuary City Blues

"Lightfoot announced the launch of a donation page for the migrants in response to the arrivals. The page asks for necessities like clothes, shoes, diapers and blankets. It also asks that willing participants sign up to be a volunteer and to help with donations."

"We have people coming as families, young children with their first taste of democracy and freedom in many instances and we need to make sure that the memory that they have of Chicago and of the United States is favorable," Lightfoot said. "Regardless of where their life journey takes them, I want them to feel like in this moment that they came to this city, and we wrapped our arms around them, loved them and supported them."

                                            definitely not the Democrat Party that your Grandpa was familiar with....

Lori Lightfoot now gets to deal with what border towns around Texas and other cities in the South have been dealing with for decades.  Liberal Democrats in northern cities have been yapping for years bemoaning mistreatment of the poor immigrants at the hands of Border Patrol and southern Republicans.  Now, they get to put up or shut up.  

The irony is not lost on me.  After the War of Northern Aggression and Reconstruction, southern Democrats realized that they were not able to win a ground war against the more industrialized North but they could create an atmosphere and culture in the South that was separate from the North and to their own liking.  That culture endured until the 1960's.  It ended as the Federal Government stepped in and rammed a new way of life down the throats of Southern whites.

During the first half of the 20th century, Northerners experienced a massive wave of Southern Negroes flowing into their own cities (Chicago in particular).  The Land of Abe Lincoln, ultra-Republican of the times, found itself playing host to a multitude of the recently emancipated.  They, like the wave of humanity now coming from Latin America, were seeking a better life.  Southern Negros (who, by the way, were citizens of the country - key difference from the illegal aliens coming into Texas today) were met by Northerners who were not always welcoming and inviting.  Some of the worst race riots in the history of the country took place in Northern and Western cities.  I should think that the attitude of Southern white Democrats at that time was, "You love 'em so much, you live next to 'em".  Northerners had been willing to fight in a civil war to liberate the Negro so long as the Negro remained in the South and away from Northern cities, it would seem.  Just across the river in E. St. Louis, IL, a very large number of Negros were killed by rampaging whites during the turn of the last century.  True story, look it up.  The Illinois whites involved were removed from the Civil War (or War of Northern Aggression) by only one generation at that time.

Now, Southern Republicans are doing the same to Northern Democrats.  Lori Lightfoot, a lesbian "person of color" and proud Democrat, has the logistical challenge of dealing with illegal immigration into her own city.  Her response thus far is to put up the equivalent of a "Go Fund Me" page.  This should work out swimmingly for the immigrants and the City of Chicago /s.

The Smug Attitude Will Vaporize

There's nothing wrong with having the self confidence that comes with questioning and examining one's own logic and acceptance of past mistakes with the desire to learn from them.  

That being said, the smug and smarmy attitude of a lot of baby boomers who recently fell ass backward into a pile of Federal Reserve Notes during the past decade (plus) will soon vanish like a fog in direct sunlight.  They are in for a rude awakening.  Those Notes were pulled directly from the asses of several Chairpersons over a long period of time (starting with Bernanke) and the stench is becoming overwhelming.

Party's over bitches.  September is finally here and The Fed no longer has your back.  You're on your own up on the tightrope and The Fed has taken down the safety net (finally).

Once upon a time you dressed so fine
Threw the bums a dime in your prime, didn't you?
People call say 'beware doll, you're bound to fall'
You thought they were all kidding you
You used to laugh about
Everybody that was hanging out
Now you don't talk so loud
Now you don't seem so proud
About having to be scrounging your next meal

How does it feel, how does it feel?
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone

Ahh you've gone to the finest schools, alright Miss Lonely
But you know you only used to get juiced in it
Nobody's ever taught you how to live out on the street
And now you're gonna have to get used to it
You say you never compromise
With the mystery tramp, but now you realize
He's not selling any alibis
As you stare into the vacuum of his eyes
And say do you want to make a deal?

How does it feel, how does it feel?
To be on your own, with no direction home
A complete unknown, like a rolling stone

Ah you never turned around to see the frowns
On the jugglers and the clowns when they all did tricks for you
You never understood that it ain't no good
You shouldn't let other people get your kicks for you
You used to ride on a chrome horse with your diplomat
Who carried on his shoulder a Siamese cat
Ain't it hard when you discovered that
He really wasn't where it's at
After he took from you everything he could steal

How does it feel, how does it feel?
To be on your own, with no direction home
Like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone

Ahh princess on a steeple and all the pretty people
They're all drinking, thinking that they've got it made
Exchanging all precious gifts
But you better take your diamond ring, you better pawn it babe
You used to be so amused
At Napoleon in rags and the language that he used
Go to him he calls you, you can't refuse
When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose
You're invisible now, you've got no secrets to conceal

How does it feel, ah how does it feel?
To be on your own, with no direction home
Like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone

Hitler Lite

Eiiyy yi yiih  -  what White House genius thought up this setting and blood red background?  Never mind the Godawful speech....  The MAGA faithful surely shit their pants...or died laughing.  Sieg Heil, Brandon!!  Go have an ice cream cone.