Friday, March 18, 2022

“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain

 All of these old Clemmons quotes still ring true.  Powell is a lot like Arthur Burns as a Fed Chair.  This is from the Federal Reserve History page:

Burns assumed leadership of the Federal Reserve during the middle of what would later become known as the Great Inflation (1965–82). In short, easy monetary policy during this period helped spur a surge in inflation and inflation expectations. When inflation began to rise, policymakers (in retrospect) responded too slowly, leading to a recession. Inflation was exacerbated by several adverse economic factors during the decade: the administration’s wage-price control program that artificially held down inflation, oil and food price shocks, and government fiscal policies that stretched economic capacities. As Burns later reflected, “In a rapidly changing world the opportunities for making mistakes are legion.”

After Burns came Miller who was a lawyer by training and an even bigger idiot.  Again, from the Federal Reserve History page:

As chairman at the Board of Governors, Miller became known for his expansionary monetary policies. Unlike some of his predecessors, Miller was less focused on combating inflation, but rather was intent on promoting economic growth even if it resulted in inflation. Miller argued that the Federal Reserve should take measures to encourage investment instead of fight rising prices. He believed that inflation was caused by many factors beyond the Board’s control.

Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker to replace Miller who went on to lead Treasury.  People often mock Carter but he appointed the Fed Chair that would eventually break the back of inflation (and also cost Carter his job).  Hindsight is always 20/20.  Carter actually did the right thing for the working people of the country by filling the Chair vacancy with Volcker.  They initially hated him because he brought the country to a "Come To Jesus moment" that it had avoided for several years and very much needed.  No one likes disciplinarians.



In his memoirs, US President Herbert Hoover says that he received the following advice from Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon after the stock market crash of 1929:

Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.” According to Hoover, Mellon “insisted that, when the people get an inflation brainstorm, the only way to get it out of their blood is to let it collapse” and that “even a panic was not altogether a bad thing.

My opinion:  Mellon was right.  Enterprising people will always pick up the wrecks of less competent people.  Hoover ignored Mellon's advice.  Had he taken it, we would have likely had a "Panic of 1929" that would have been short lived.  The government tried to intervene in what is a normal business cycle and instead, we remember a long "Great Depression".  Like Mother Nature, the business cycle will have its own way come hell or high water.  We can either do this the easy way or we can do it the hard way.  For the most part, the government has been meddling ever since then and it is the working stiffs of the country who pay for it.  The Fed should not be controlling the price of credit in a credit driven economy.

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